Romney blowing away Obama, 49-45, Pew poll

[Mr. Perfect]

Whoa. Are you suggesting we don't consider gross debt? I may not be following you.

[anderson]

Whoa. Are you suggesting we don't consider gross debt? I may not be following you.

No, what I'm saying is that you may have introduced some confusion in one of your posts on the last page. You claimed "Obama sent the debt from 50-100% GDP," and when challenged, you posted a graph of debt held by the public rather than gross debt.

[Mr. Perfect]

The fact that the numbers have moved that dramatically is sterling testimony that a large percentage of America ought not be trusted with a fork and knife at dinner.

True. Another indicator is that people care about a nationwide poll at all, given that the electoral college makes it irrelevant. I guess it's a way to keep theoretical score on how a national campaign is going, something to look at on a Tuesday when there are no NFL/NCAA games to watch.

Don't worry ibs we're overtaking in the swing states also.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll

[Mr. Perfect]

Whoa. Are you suggesting we don't consider gross debt? I may not be following you.

No, what I'm saying is that you may have introduced some confusion in one of your posts on the last page. You claimed "Obama sent the debt from 50-100% GDP," and when challenged, you posted a graph of debt held by the public rather than gross debt.

Well I'm struggling finding up to date graphs. The one I chose was off goog images and the most similar to one I was using before I can't find now. I prefer graphs that show at least to 1900, 1790 is preferable, with proper scaling but such charts are rare.

[anderson]

The fact that the numbers have moved that dramatically is sterling testimony that a large percentage of America ought not be trusted with a fork and knife at dinner.

True. Another indicator is that people care about a nationwide poll at all, given that the electoral college makes it irrelevant. I guess it's a way to keep theoretical score on how a national campaign is going, something to look at on a Tuesday when there are no NFL/NCAA games to watch.

Don't worry ibs we're overtaking in the swing states also.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll

An aggregate percentage across all the swing states is interesting, but not very meaningful, especially with a 2% margin, unless you can show that margin extends uniformly across states. To judge that you need the state by state numbers. Without finer grained information, such an even aggregate statistic would suggest, in the absence of other information, that each candidate would take roughly half the contests. In which case Romney would lose.

[Ibrahim]

An aggregate percentage across all the swing states is interesting, but not very meaningful, especially with a 2% margin, unless you can show that margin extends uniformly across states. To judge that you need the state by state numbers. Without finer grained information, such an even aggregate statistic would suggest, in the absence of other information, that each candidate would take roughly half the contests. In which case Romney would lose.

Pfft! Numeracy.

[Mr. Perfect]

The fact that the numbers have moved that dramatically is sterling testimony that a large percentage of America ought not be trusted with a fork and knife at dinner.

True. Another indicator is that people care about a nationwide poll at all, given that the electoral college makes it irrelevant. I guess it's a way to keep theoretical score on how a national campaign is going, something to look at on a Tuesday when there are no NFL/NCAA games to watch.

Don't worry ibs we're overtaking in the swing states also.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll

An aggregate percentage across all the swing states is interesting, but not very meaningful, especially with a 2% margin, unless you can show that margin extends uniformly across states. To judge that you need the state by state numbers. Without finer grained information, such an even aggregate statistic would suggest, in the absence of other information, that each candidate would take roughly half the contests. In which case Romney would lose.

Wow, now you guys are all interested in poll specifics. And it wouldn't suggest that anyway.

Look there are polls all over state specific that show Romney pulling into the lead or taking the lead. You can remain ignorant of them all you want, doesn't matter to me.

[anderson]

The fact that the numbers have moved that dramatically is sterling testimony that a large percentage of America ought not be trusted with a fork and knife at dinner.

True. Another indicator is that people care about a nationwide poll at all, given that the electoral college makes it irrelevant. I guess it's a way to keep theoretical score on how a national campaign is going, something to look at on a Tuesday when there are no NFL/NCAA games to watch.

Don't worry ibs we're overtaking in the swing states also.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll

An aggregate percentage across all the swing states is interesting, but not very meaningful, especially with a 2% margin, unless you can show that margin extends uniformly across states. To judge that you need the state by state numbers. Without finer grained information, such an even aggregate statistic would suggest, in the absence of other information, that each candidate would take roughly half the contests. In which case Romney would lose.

Wow, now you guys are all interested in poll specifics. And it wouldn't suggest that anyway.

Look there are polls all over state specific that show Romney pulling into the lead or taking the lead. You can remain ignorant of them all you want, doesn't matter to me.

A former math major. What can I say.
And, by the way, state by state, if you wanted to stick with Rasmussen (the most accurate in the universe, according to your previous declaration), Obama still leads in states having enough electoral votes to win comfortably. He leads still in all the swing states except Florida, NC, Virginia, and Missouri, by my recollection, according to Rasmussen, and even those 4 are all quite close. Given that Ohio+anything would be an Obama victory, so far, things still don't look so great for Romney. Time will tell how the trends move in coming weeks.

[Mr. Perfect]

No we have polls showing Romney winning OH in addition to FL and VA, I don't know how you draw up a Romney win in those three states without picking up any of the rest he would need, we have a poll within 2% in PA now. My analysis shows that if Romney wins OH he'll likely win it all.

Rasmussen is the most accurate national pollster, we have no idea on a state by state basis. I feel good about the trends.

[Mr. Perfect]

See ands? Here is a heavily dem sampled poll, Romney wins OH. And as I posted before, ballot apps do not reflect anything other than partisan parity. Let me know what your math skills say there.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/OH12.html

[Mr. Perfect]

Blue states in play.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/ins ... ng-gap-pa/

[Ibrahim]

A former math major. What can I say.
And, by the way, state by state, if you wanted to stick with Rasmussen..., Obama still leads in states having enough electoral votes to win comfortably. He leads still in all the swing states except Florida, NC, Virginia, and Missouri, by my recollection, according to Rasmussen, and even those 4 are all quite close. Given that Ohio+anything would be an Obama victory, so far, things still don't look so great for Romney. Time will tell how the trends move in coming weeks.

Precisely. Romney got a bump from the debate, but is still firmly behind in real terms. The ability to count is a blessing, no?


Still some time left for both candidates to do something to change these numbers, of course...

[Mr. Perfect]

Precisely. Romney got a bump from the debate, but is still firmly behind in real terms.

Not even anderson is saying this, are you anderson.

Still some time left for both candidates to do something to change these numbers, of course...

The numbers are still changing as we speak.

[anderson]

Precisely. Romney got a bump from the debate, but is still firmly behind in real terms.

Not even anderson is saying this, are you anderson.
The numbers are still changing as we speak.

Well, I'm saying Romney is still an outside shot at this point. I'm open to reconsideration in light of new evidence if things stay this way or build for Romney over the next week.

Situation is this: Obama has so far a firm foundation of 251 EVs. The chances of him losing all but 18 EV out of the 106 EV in play still seems a longshot at this point.

[Mr. Perfect]

Yeah, I'm not seeing that.

At this moment, all Romney has to do is win OH and VA and he wins. Very, very doable at this point.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... s_ups.html

[anderson]

Yeah, I'm not seeing that.

At this moment, all Romney has to do is win OH and VA and he wins. Very, very doable at this point.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... s_ups.html

Ha! No, he'd have to win OH and VA, PLUS Florida and NC.
You're stealth sneaking in another two swing states there.
Nice try, though.

Suppose you did have that going on ... 294-13-18= 263. But, then suppose Obama flipped Colorado back. Wins again.
That's the problem I see at this point. There are more ways for Obama to make it than Romney, because Obama starts ahead in terms of what is reliable.
Romney has to nearly run the board, and won't tend to do that with a couple points advantage.

[Mr. Perfect]

Yeah, I'm not seeing that.

At this moment, all Romney has to do is win OH and VA and he wins. Very, very doable at this point.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... s_ups.html

Ha! No, he'd have to win OH and VA, PLUS Florida and NC.
You're stealth sneaking in another two swing states there.
Nice try, though.

Suppose you did have that going on ... 294-13-18= 263. But, then suppose Obama flipped Colorado back. Wins again.
That's the problem I see at this point. There are more ways for Obama to make it than Romney, because Obama starts ahead in terms of what is reliable.
Romney has to nearly run the board, and won't tend to do that with a couple points advantage.

Well take it up with RCP, half the polls on there are a week old, so if we drop them the states are even redder than they now appear.

I put the race at 50/50 at the moment. The swing states haven't split up since, since, since, I don't really know, they are plenty likely go all one way as they have before.

[Typhoon]

. . . If Obama wins our baseline budget will put us at about 150 debt to gdp by the end of the term, coupled with a likely recession in the 2nd term, which means America is finished.

. . .

How do you arrive at this prediction? Why ~ 150% debt to gdp as opposed to 120% or 190%?

This number went from 50 to over 100 in the first 4 years, the deficit and gdp situations don't look any different going forward so 100-150 seems about right. It certainly could be higher, but people would say I'm an alarmist and so forth. Pick a number you like, it's all too high.

[source: wikipedia]

Let's say for the sake of argument that the critical number is 150% debt to gdp, then what exactly is the chain of events, including recession,
that would result in "America is finished"?

Without presenting a detailed scenario, I think such claims have little value as I've been reading them now since the early '80s.

I do have a specific scenario in mind, but I'd like to read yours first.

[Nonc Hilaire]

Many people don't care about the current state of the BS "War of the Words". Personally, I just hang up on every pollster.

Calling a poll about the Obama and Romney debate "Pew" does make sense, though. Maybe the "Rancid Stench" poll after the next debate will be enlightening.

[Ibrahim]

Many people don't care about the current state of the BS "War of the Words". Personally, I just hang up on every pollster.

Calling a poll about the Obama and Romney debate "Pew" does make sense, though. Maybe the "Rancid Stench" poll after the next debate will be enlightening.

All that's being graded is the perception of the debate. Never the content. Based on his oafish performances during the primary, I thought Romney would look bad against Obama, and he didn't, so I would agree that he "won the debate." But the content is never in question.

As I said during the debate, the actual things Romney was saying were indistinguishable from Obama. Both are going to tax and spend and pull the levers of government to create more jobs. Romney even wants to provide all of the same government health care as Obama, just in some different unspecified method that will hypothetically be as or more effective and cost less.

So if people cared about what was being said conservatives in America would be freaking out at the prospect of picking between two socialists. In reality, they are delighted because their candidate looked better while saying all of those things. He got a bump, that's all that matters.

[Mr. Perfect]

Let's say for the sake of argument that the critical number is 150% debt to gdp, then what exactly is the chain of events, including recession,
that would result in "America is finished"?

Without presenting a detailed scenario, I think such claims have little value as I've been reading them now since the early '80s.

I do have a specific scenario in mind, but I'd like to read yours first.

There are dozens of doomsday scenarios, we've been discussing them for years now. The magic number may be 150%, but it may be 100%, where we are now. As I've said before, once you go over 250 lbs or so you lose control of when you die and how, nobody can really predict but just assess your overall risks. The naysayers on this topic remind me of fat people who say they feel fine at 275 therefore why should I worry about my health. There are a bazillion reasons not to be fat other than imminent death.

A finished America is U6 unemployment at 20% with avg gdp growth less than 2%. We are at a point where jobs are growing more slowly than the population, debts are skyrocketing past GDP, incomes are falling and food stamp usage is at record levels. Apples and oranges, but the only difference between where we are now and the GD is a few more points of unemployment and bread lines. Everyone knows of course that if borrowing costs go up we face actual defaults. The reasons to keep doing this don't exist.

There was no detailed scenario before the tech bubble crash, 9-11, or the subprime mortgage collapse yet they happened anyway.

[Typhoon]

Let's say for the sake of argument that the critical number is 150% debt to gdp, then what exactly is the chain of events, including recession,
that would result in "America is finished"?

Without presenting a detailed scenario, I think such claims have little value as I've been reading them now since the early '80s.

I do have a specific scenario in mind, but I'd like to read yours first.

There are dozens of doomsday scenarios, we've been discussing them for years now. The magic number may be 150%, but it may be 100%, where we are now. As I've said before, once you go over 250 lbs or so you lose control of when you die and how, nobody can really predict but just assess your overall risks. The naysayers on this topic remind me of fat people who say they feel fine at 275 therefore why should I worry about my health. There are a bazillion reasons not to be fat other than imminent death.

A finished America is U6 unemployment at 20% with avg gdp growth less than 2%. We are at a point where jobs are growing more slowly than the population, debts are skyrocketing past GDP, incomes are falling and food stamp usage is at record levels. Apples and oranges, but the only difference between where we are now and the GD is a few more points of unemployment and bread lines. Everyone knows of course that if borrowing costs go up we face actual defaults. The reasons to keep doing this don't exist.

There was no detailed scenario before the tech bubble crash, 9-11, or the subprime mortgage collapse yet they happened anyway.

My scenario is that once the US cannot pay the interest on it's public debt through conventional taxation, then the only option is to print - create - additional money.

This would be the beginning of the repudiation of the US dollar are the global reserve currency resulting in the loss of the advantages the US currently enjoy to run up debt.

[Mr. Perfect]

Yes, and we're not there yet and we're still printing money at a clip of 50 billion a month indefinitely after near record QE1 and QE2.

[Farcus]

Yes, and we're not there yet and we're still printing money at a clip of 50 billion a month indefinitely after near record QE1 and QE2.

How fast are 'we' destroying it?

[Milo]

Let's say for the sake of argument that the critical number is 150% debt to gdp, then what exactly is the chain of events, including recession,
that would result in "America is finished"?

Without presenting a detailed scenario, I think such claims have little value as I've been reading them now since the early '80s.

I do have a specific scenario in mind, but I'd like to read yours first.

There are dozens of doomsday scenarios, we've been discussing them for years now. The magic number may be 150%, but it may be 100%, where we are now. As I've said before, once you go over 250 lbs or so you lose control of when you die and how, nobody can really predict but just assess your overall risks. The naysayers on this topic remind me of fat people who say they feel fine at 275 therefore why should I worry about my health. There are a bazillion reasons not to be fat other than imminent death.

A finished America is U6 unemployment at 20% with avg gdp growth less than 2%. We are at a point where jobs are growing more slowly than the population, debts are skyrocketing past GDP, incomes are falling and food stamp usage is at record levels. Apples and oranges, but the only difference between where we are now and the GD is a few more points of unemployment and bread lines. Everyone knows of course that if borrowing costs go up we face actual defaults. The reasons to keep doing this don't exist.

There was no detailed scenario before the tech bubble crash, 9-11, or the subprime mortgage collapse yet they happened anyway.

My scenario is that once the US cannot pay the interest on it's public debt through conventional taxation, then the only option is to print - create - additional money.

This would be the beginning of the repudiation of the US dollar are the global reserve currency resulting in the loss of the advantages the US currently enjoy to run up debt.

The reserve status of the US dollar is maintained by a deal with the devil anyway. I'm sure that a US dollar stripped of that status would greatly benefit the global economy in the long run.