Spengler Discovers Hungarian Suicide

[Typhoon]

Or, if you want to split hairs, you could look up the demographics of Israel and find this Frigginpedia quote:

The growth rate of the Arab population in Israel is 2.6%, while the growth rate of the Jewish population in Israel is 1.7%. The growth rate of both the Jewish and Arab population has slowed from 3.8% in 1999 to 2.6% in 2008 for Arab and 2.7% to 1.7% for the Jewish population. The fastest growing segment of population are Arab Muslims with the latest growth rate of 2.8% for 2008.[20]

So, if you exclude the Arabs, it turns out that Spengman's happy Jews aren't that happy anymore. At 1.7%, they fall to 169 in the "List of sovereign states and dependent territories by fertility rate," within 30 places of Hungary and in the bottom quarter of the index. And the figure could probably be reduced even further by splitting the Israeli birth rate between the urban&Westernized part of the country and the backward Orthodox/settler population, whose reproduction habits must push the overall rate higher.

Isn't a country that ranks so low across the board notable?

So does Switzerland, for that matter (189th in birth rates, 16th in suicide). And Belarus (214th, 5th) I wonder what a rich country and a very poor one have in common? Probably nothing. I bet the Swiss even have their Jews and that stupid fish dish.

Ah, now I understand Spenglerman's thesis: it's a lack of Arabs that is responsible for the current funk in Hungary.

[YMix]

Or too few gypsies. I now realize that Romania should hang on to its own gypsies.

Western Europe! Give us back our gypsies!

[Mr. Perfect]

Or, if you want to split hairs, you could look up the demographics of Israel and find this Frigginpedia quote:

The growth rate of the Arab population in Israel is 2.6%, while the growth rate of the Jewish population in Israel is 1.7%. The growth rate of both the Jewish and Arab population has slowed from 3.8% in 1999 to 2.6% in 2008 for Arab and 2.7% to 1.7% for the Jewish population. The fastest growing segment of population are Arab Muslims with the latest growth rate of 2.8% for 2008.[20]

So, if you exclude the Arabs, it turns out that Spengman's happy Jews aren't that happy anymore. At 1.7%, they fall to 169 in the "List of sovereign states and dependent territories by fertility rate," within 30 places of Hungary and in the bottom quarter of the index. And the figure could probably be reduced even further by splitting the Israeli birth rate between the urban&Westernized part of the country and the backward Orthodox/settler population, whose reproduction habits must push the overall rate higher.

Isn't a country that ranks so low across the board notable?

So does Switzerland, for that matter (189th in birth rates, 16th in suicide). And Belarus (214th, 5th) I wonder what a rich country and a very poor one have in common? Probably nothing. I bet the Swiss even have their Jews and that stupid fish dish.

There is reason to doubt the numbers coming from Pali groups, but we'll leave that for another day. My guess is that Spengler ain't really happy with the secular Jew of Israel, but really that isn't the point.

The point is that what I hear usually boils down to Spengler saying "see that guy over there in the alley, he's dying" and the echo chamber erupts, "look at that jew, he's such a racist! Ha ha!" Me, a casual observer wonders, sometimes aloud, "how does pointing out that someone is dying racist exactly?" and I hear "racist! He so racist!".

I then wonder aloud "well maybe Spengler is a racist, you could be right, but isn't whether the guys is dying in the alley a little more important?" which is left with "haha! He so racist! And dumb! Jewish banker! Ha ha ha!".

So the lesson for me is just let people die in back alleys in peace, no one will miss them I guess. I know I won't.

[YMix]

Who said racist?

[Typhoon]

Who said racist?

Indeed. Who did?

[Mr. Perfect]

Anybody who has said he is critical of non-jews. How many supporting quotes do you want?

But more importantly, isn't the issue not whether Spengler is a racist or stupid, or whatever ulterior motive people seem to grasp for, isn't the real issue whether or not that guy in the alley is dying or not?

[YMix]

Isn't he critical of non-Jews? Doesn't he praise Jews?

isn't the real issue whether or not that guy in the alley is dying or not?

No. Even you could do a better job of framing the issue.

[Typhoon]

Anybody who has said he is critical of non-jews. How many supporting quotes do you want?

Jews are a race?

But more importantly, isn't the issue not whether Spengler is a racist or stupid, or whatever ulterior motive people seem to grasp for, isn't the real issue whether or not that guy in the alley is dying or not?

Well, that's up to the Hungarians I would think. However, their situation is not extraordinary.

Consider the Hungarians very distant relatives: S Korea with a fertility rate lower than that of Hungary and Japan [1.21] and a suicide rate [31.2] higher than that of Japan - second only that of Lithuania.

Yet S Korean companies are competing very successfully in quite a number of markets.

[Mr. Perfect]

Isn't he critical of non-Jews? Doesn't he praise Jews?

I guess. He also criticizes jews and praises non-jews. I'm not sure what that has to do with anything. You could be right, he could be a racist, or an "ethnist" or a bigot, you can choose the word, I won't dispute the word. He could drink Arab blood for all I know, you can't put anything past people it seems.

No. Even you could do a better job of framing the issue.

Why isn't whether a guy is dying in an alley an issue?

[Mr. Perfect]

Jews are a race?

What do we call people who hate jews? We don't call them racist? If I called someone who hated jews a racist would you correct me?

Well, that's up to the Hungarians I would think. However, their situation is not extraordinary.

Well sure, but as human beings tend to discuss human affairs why would the these kinds of issues not be as valid as any others?

[Typhoon]

Jews are a race?

What do we call people who hate jews? We don't call them racist? If I called someone who hated jews a racist would you correct me?

I would politely introduce the term anti-semitic into the conversation.

Well, that's up to the Hungarians I would think. However, their situation is not extraordinary.

Well sure, but as human beings tend to discuss human affairs why would the these kinds of issues not be as valid as any others?

Fine, however, that's not the point of Spenglerman's essay, which is the topic of this thread.

[YMix]

You could be right, he could be a racist, or an "ethnist" or a bigot, you can choose the word, I won't dispute the word.

Except I didn't use these words.

Why isn't whether a guy is dying in an alley an issue?

What Spengman did was to use the numbers to prove a theory regarding the cause of death. Therefore, the issue is whether the guy is in fact dying and whether the cause of death is the one that Spengman put forward.

[Mr. Perfect]

I would politely introduce the term anti-semitic into the conversation.

The term "semitic race" returned 25.8 million hits on google.

Fine, however, that's not the point of Spenglerman's essay, which is the topic of this thread.

I think the point of Spengler's essays have been declining fertility at large, which I haven't seen anyone factually dispute despite the fact everyone seems to act like they are factually disputed. Why that is a phenomenon not worth analyzing escapes me, I have some guesses on that but will let other people go first.

[Mr. Perfect]

Except I didn't use these words.

What words would you use to describe someone criticizing people not of a certain semitic race?

What Spengman did was to use the numbers to prove a theory regarding the cause of death. Therefore, the issue is whether the guy is in fact dying and whether the cause of death is the one that Spengman put forward.

Ok. So far I've seen no one show the guy not dying and no one have any explanation for any of this.

[YMix]

What words would you use to describe someone criticizing people not of a certain semitic race?

It depends on the criticism. If it's intelligent criticism, I'd call him an "intelligent man". If not, I'd call him a "moron".

Ok. So far I've seen no one show the guy not dying and no one have any explanation for any of this.

The guy is dying only if the current trend holds for some decades. Quite a few decades, probably close to a century. Spengman's theory is based on a linear projection that may or may not hold. We have no idea.

As for explanations, there's no reason to provide an alternative one. Spengman's was judged and found wanting. His theory is unconvincing.

[Typhoon]

I would politely introduce the term anti-semitic into the conversation.

The term "semitic race" returned 25.8 million hits on google.

The term "flat earth" returned about 3,160,000 hits on google. So it must be correct.

Fine, however, that's not the point of Spenglerman's essay, which is the topic of this thread.

I think the point of Spengler's essays have been declining fertility at large, which I haven't seen anyone factually dispute despite the fact everyone seems to act like they are factually disputed. Why that is a phenomenon not worth analyzing escapes me, I have some guesses on that but will let other people go first.

I must be reading a different set of Spenglerman essays.

[Mr. Perfect]

The term "flat earth" returned about 3,160,000 hits on google. So it must be correct.

No it means that lots of people disagree with you, you'll have to take it up with them.

[Mr. Perfect]

It depends on the criticism. If it's intelligent criticism, I'd call him an "intelligent man". If not, I'd call him a "moron".

how is criticism based on race not racism?

The guy is dying only if the current trend holds for some decades. Quite a few decades, probably close to a century. Spengman's theory is based on a linear projection that may or may not hold. We have no idea.

Well here we go again, Spengler is not arguing a linear projection, he's arguing that birth rates are going down. He's arguing that socialist welfare models are based on ever increasing numbers of offspring to pay for future welfare benefits. The failure to do so results in catastrophe. That the math is the killer, that a 10% drop in anything require a 20 increase to return to original levels, which is mathematically next to impossible. That just like someone radiated, they may look healthy on the outside but the death blow has been delivered whether anyone can see it or not.

Not that I'm complaining that turns out to be the case of course. Consider me more a cheerleader. Who talks trash to a dying man.

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As for explanations, there's no reason to provide an alternative one. Spengman's was judged and found wanting. His theory is unconvincing.

We all make our bets in life. Outdated, but let me know if you need help reading the graph.

[YMix]

He's arguing that socialist welfare models are based on ever increasing numbers of offspring to pay for future welfare benefits.

Oh, so it's actually about socialism. If I remember Spengman's old lavender correctly, it's not just socialism, but the mass production+consumption economy in general that grinds to a halt. Without increasing numbers of consumers, capital will have to languish in strong boxes, unable to find those sweet returns. Oh, well. Feel free to start a new thread on this.

[Mr. Perfect]

The welfare model is just the easy to understand part. It just gets worse from there.

[Apollonius]

Curiously, Canada's Aboriginal population is both very happy and very sad at the same time.

They have the highest birthrate of any population group in the country (higher than any Jewish population anywhere, possibly excepting the settler population in Israel), and at the same time have one of the highest suicide rates of any group in the world (Nunavut has a suicide rate over twice that of Lithuania).

[Ibrahim]

Or, if you want to split hairs, you could look up the demographics of Israel and find this Frigginpedia quote:

The growth rate of the Arab population in Israel is 2.6%, while the growth rate of the Jewish population in Israel is 1.7%. The growth rate of both the Jewish and Arab population has slowed from 3.8% in 1999 to 2.6% in 2008 for Arab and 2.7% to 1.7% for the Jewish population. The fastest growing segment of population are Arab Muslims with the latest growth rate of 2.8% for 2008.[20]

So, if you exclude the Arabs, it turns out that Spengman's happy Jews aren't that happy anymore. At 1.7%, they fall to 169 in the "List of sovereign states and dependent territories by fertility rate," within 30 places of Hungary and in the bottom quarter of the index. And the figure could probably be reduced even further by splitting the Israeli birth rate between the urban&Westernized part of the country and the backward Orthodox/settler population, whose reproduction habits must push the overall rate higher.

Isn't a country that ranks so low across the board notable?

So does Switzerland, for that matter (189th in birth rates, 16th in suicide). And Belarus (214th, 5th) I wonder what a rich country and a very poor one have in common? Probably nothing. I bet the Swiss even have their Jews and that stupid fish dish.

Ah, now I understand Spenglerman's thesis: it's a lack of Arabs that is responsible for the current funk in Hungary.

Arabs, Africans, and other untermenschen don't count towards the Spenglerism that birthrates indicate something about the strength of a culture or its belief in the future of whatever.

The detail about how even the few numbers Spengler accepts as relevant are flawed and misleading would perhaps be something Spengler might feel the need to address, but I am not holding my breath.

[Ibrahim]

Oh, so it's actually about socialism. If I remember Spengman's old lavender correctly, it's not just socialism, but the mass production+consumption economy in general that grinds to a halt. Without increasing numbers of consumers, capital will have to languish in strong boxes, unable to find those sweet returns.

What Spenglerman demographic theories are "really about" is whatever part you aren't currently debunking.

[Enki]

I think the question its really about whether Gross National Happiness is even a thing and whether our not TFR and suicide its a reliable indicato for it.

Spengler isn't an durian, he is just anti-scientific* because he has a hypothesis and he sets out to prove it, selecting the facts that support it. This is that Israel is the best. So everything he looks at is what best supports that idea.

*ironically autocorrect chose antisemitic as the top hit.

[Ibrahim]

I think the question its really about whether Gross National Happiness is even a thing and whether our not TFR and suicide its a reliable indicator for it.

Clearly the answer is "no, and no." I think we all pretty much agree on that point, the amusing part is critiquing Spengler's motivation and methodology.

Spengler isn't an durian, he is just anti-scientific* because he has a hypothesis and he sets out to prove it, selecting the facts that support it. This is that Israel is the best. So everything he looks at is what best supports that idea.

There is always a problem when insecure people attempt to appear confident. The problem with Spengler isn't just that he thinks group A is the best. It's that the only way he can think of to assert group A's superiority is by contrasting it with, and also asserting the inferiority of, group B. It's Short Man Syndrome on a geopolitical scale. The 20th century is thick with examples.