Climate change and other predictions of Imminent Doom

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Typhoon
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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Nature Climate via Register | The more science you know, the less worried you are about climate [change]
'Abandon focus on sound science', say trick-cyclists
A US government-funded survey has found that Americans with higher levels of scientific and mathematical knowledge are more sceptical regarding the dangers of climate change than their more poorly educated fellow citizens.

The results of the survey are especially remarkable as it was plainly not intended to show any such thing: Rather, the researchers and trick-cyclists who carried it out were doing so from the position that the "scientific consensus" (carbon-driven global warming is ongoing and extremely dangerous) is a settled fact, and the priority is now to find some way of getting US voters to believe in the need for urgent, immediate and massive action to reduce CO2 emissions.
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

Post by Milo »

I will make my usual contribution to these threads:

I feel that this is the least important discussion that anyone can have, re environmental issues. We should tackle pollution (Remember that?) problems and encourage technological advances, and quit this intractable debate. Sometimes I wonder if MMGW was invented by industry, so that our energies would be wasted on this silliness.
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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Milo wrote:I will make my usual contribution to these threads:

I feel that this is the least important discussion that anyone can have, re environmental issues. We should tackle pollution (Remember that?) problems and encourage technological advances, and quit this intractable debate. Sometimes I wonder if MMGW was invented by industry, so that our energies would be wasted on this silliness.
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

~ Hanlon's Razor
The Congressional Research Service estimates that since 2008 the federal government has spent nearly $70 billion on “climate change activities.”
Image

Since James Hansen's, now discredited, testimony to the US Congress in June 1988, climate change went from an obscure backwater of research to a multi-billion dollar per year industry in the US alone.

Climate scientists, so-called, went from writing multiple grant applications for peanuts to feted media superstars with considerable personal fortunes.

In other words, man made global warming did not start out as a scam, but it did evolve into one.

One of the worst aspects is the massive mis-allocation of scarce resources towards a non-existent problem:
the US government spends about the same per year on supposed climate change as the entire budget of the US National Institutes of Health.
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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Pielke | Are wind turbines a practical source of electric power?

Europhysics News | Wind turbines as yet unsuitable as electricity providers

Image
Conclusion:

Decisions to install large-scale wind-powered electricity generation are based more on the expectation to save significant amounts of fossil fuel and CO2 emission than on any evidence that this is indeed the case. Wind technology is not suited for large-scale application without a good buffer and storage system. We propose to stop spending public money on large-scale use of wind. This money should be spent on R&D of future power systems. We expect that wind will not play an important role in these future systems.
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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Simple Minded wrote:Even the semmingly immortal Gods survive only as long as they are desired by mortal man......

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/06/22/green-drivel

Two months ago, James Lovelock, the godfather of global warming, gave a startling interview to msnbc.com in which he acknowledged he had been unduly “alarmist” about climate change.

The implications were extraordinary.

Lovelock is a world-renowned scientist and environmentalist whose Gaia theory — that the Earth operates as a single, living organism — has had a profound impact on the development of global warming theory.

Unlike many “environmentalists,” who have degrees in political science, Lovelock, until his recent retirement at age 92, was a much-honoured working scientist and academic.

His inventions have been used by NASA, among many other scientific organizations.

Lovelock’s invention of the electron capture detector in 1957 first enabled scientists to measure CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) and other pollutants in the atmosphere, leading, in many ways, to the birth of the modern environmental movement.

Having observed that global temperatures since the turn of the millennium have not gone up in the way computer-based climate models predicted, Lovelock acknowledged, “the problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago.” Now, Lovelock has given a follow-up interview to the UK’s Guardian newspaper in which he delivers more bombshells sure to anger the global green movement, which for years worshipped his Gaia theory and apocalyptic predictions that billions would die from man-made climate change by the end of this century.

Lovelock still believes anthropogenic global warming is occurring and that mankind must lower its greenhouse gas emissions, but says it’s now clear the doomsday predictions, including his own (and Al Gore’s) were incorrect.

He responds to attacks on his revised views by noting that, unlike many climate scientists who fear a loss of government funding if they admit error, as a freelance scientist, he’s never been afraid to revise his theories in the face of new evidence. Indeed, that’s how science advances.

Among his observations to the Guardian:

(1) A long-time supporter of nuclear power as a way to lower greenhouse gas emissions, which has made him unpopular with environmentalists, Lovelock has now come out in favour of natural gas fracking (which environmentalists also oppose), as a low-polluting alternative to coal.

As Lovelock observes, “Gas is almost a give-away in the U.S. at the moment. They’ve gone for fracking in a big way. This is what makes me very cross with the greens for trying to knock it … Let’s be pragmatic and sensible and get Britain to switch everything to methane. We should be going mad on it.” (Kandeh Yumkella, co-head of a major United Nations program on sustainable energy, made similar arguments last week at a UN environmental conference in Rio de Janeiro, advocating the development of conventional and unconventional natural gas resources as a way to reduce deforestation and save millions of lives in the Third World.)

(2) Lovelock blasted greens for treating global warming like a religion.

“It just so happens that the green religion is now taking over from the Christian religion,” Lovelock observed. “I don’t think people have noticed that, but it’s got all the sort of terms that religions use … The greens use guilt. That just shows how religious greens are. You can’t win people round by saying they are guilty for putting (carbon dioxide) in the air.”

(3) Lovelock mocks the idea modern economies can be powered by wind turbines.

As he puts it, “so-called ‘sustainable development’ … is meaningless drivel … We rushed into renewable energy without any thought. The schemes are largely hopelessly inefficient and unpleasant. I personally can’t stand windmills at any price.”

(4) Finally, about claims “the science is settled” on global warming: “One thing that being a scientist has taught me is that you can never be certain about anything. You never know the truth. You can only approach it and hope to get a bit nearer to it each time. You iterate towards the truth. You don’t know it.”
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Simple Minded

Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

Post by Simple Minded »

Typhoon, thanks for the correction. :)

Dyslexia and lack of opposable thumbs can be a real hinderance to typing...
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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Simple Minded wrote:Typhoon, thanks for the correction. :)

Dyslexia and lack of opposable thumbs can be a real hinderance to typing...
No worries.

My spatial dyslexia, saying right while pointing left and vice versa, can lead to interesting situations and exchanges.
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Rising Sea Levels

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http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... gn=Content#


We've definitely seen more flooding in NYC in recent years. Between the increase in precipitation and this, the water table has risen. They close the subways for flooding a lot more than they did in the past.
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Re: Rising Sea Levels

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Enki wrote:http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... gn=Content#

We've definitely seen more flooding in NYC in recent years. Between the increase in precipitation and this, the water table has risen. They close the subways for flooding a lot more than they did in the past.
NY Tidal Gauge Data

Image

A sea level rise of about 3mm [ 0.12 inches ] per year. No evidence of acceleration.

Can you provide evidence for your claim of "more flooding in NYC in recent years".
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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The Reg | Antarctic ice shelves not melting at all, new field data show
Twenty-year-old models which have suggested serious ice loss in the eastern Antarctic have been compared with reality for the first time - and found to be wrong, so much so that it now appears that no ice is being lost at all.

"Previous ocean models ... have predicted temperatures and melt rates that are too high, suggesting a significant mass loss in this region that is actually not taking place," says Tore Hattermann of the Norwegian Polar Institute, member of a team which has obtained two years' worth of direct measurements below the massive Fimbul Ice Shelf in eastern Antarctica - the first ever to be taken.
AGU:
It turns out that past studies, which were based on computer models without any direct data for comparison or guidance, overestimate the water temperatures and extent of melting beneath the Fimbul Ice Shelf. This has led to the misconception, Hattermann said, that the ice shelf is losing mass at a faster rate than it is gaining mass, leading to an overall loss of mass.

The team’s results show that water temperatures are far lower than computer models predicted ...
GRL | Two years of oceanic observations below the Fimbul Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Computer models of climate change = GIGO -> Garbage In, Garbage Out
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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The Global Warming Hoax of 1874

All sorts of good things over at that place I found
Been busy doing stuff
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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Hoosiernorm wrote:The Global Warming Hoax of 1874

All sorts of good things over at that place I found
Today's man-made CO2 mechanism is a probable as Donati's.
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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IEEE Spectrum | A Skeptic Looks at Alternative Energy
It takes several lifetimes to put a new energy system into place, and wishful thinking can’t speed things along
In June 2004 the editor of an energy journal called to ask me to comment on a just-announced plan to build the world’s largest photovoltaic electric generating plant.
Where would it be, I asked—Arizona? Spain? North Africa? No, it was to be spread among three locations in rural Bavaria, southeast of Nuremberg.

I said there must be some mistake. I grew up not far from that place, just across the border with the Czech Republic, and I will never forget those seemingly endless days of summer spent inside while it rained incessantly. Bavaria is like Seattle in the United States or Sichuan province in China. You don’t want to put a solar plant in Bavaria, but that is exactly where the Germans put it. The plant, with a peak output of 10 megawatts, went into operation in June 2005.

It happened for the best reason there is in politics: money. Welcome to the world of new renewable energies, where the subsidies rule—and consumers pay.
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the ... story.html
Increasingly common experiences with extreme climate-related events such as the Colorado wildfires, a record warm spring and preseason hurricanes have convinced many Americans climate change is a reality, the head of a U.S. scientific agency said Friday.

Many Americans had previously seen climate change as a “nebulous concept” removed from them in time and geography, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief Jane Lubchenco.“Many people around the world are beginning to appreciate that climate change is under way, that it’s having consequences that are playing out in real time and, in the United States at least, we are seeing more and more examples of extreme weather and extreme climate-related events,” Lubchenco told a university forum in the Australian capital of Canberra.

“People’s perceptions in the United States at least are in many cases beginning to change as they experience something first-hand that they at least think is directly attributable to climate change,” she said.

Among the extreme events, she noted record-breaking wildfires in the West in the past two years, including in Colorado, where blazes recently damaged or destroyed nearly 350 homes and killed two people.

Last spring was the warmest in the Unites States since 1895, when records were first kept. For only the third time since hurricane records started in 1851, two hurricanes formed over the North Atlantic before the season officially began June 1.
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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Ammianus wrote:http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the ... story.html
Increasingly common experiences with extreme climate-related events such as the Colorado wildfires, a record warm spring and preseason hurricanes have convinced many Americans climate change is a reality, the head of a U.S. scientific agency said Friday.

Many Americans had previously seen climate change as a “nebulous concept” removed from them in time and geography, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief Jane Lubchenco.“Many people around the world are beginning to appreciate that climate change is under way, that it’s having consequences that are playing out in real time and, in the United States at least, we are seeing more and more examples of extreme weather and extreme climate-related events,” Lubchenco told a university forum in the Australian capital of Canberra.

“People’s perceptions in the United States at least are in many cases beginning to change as they experience something first-hand that they at least think is directly attributable to climate change,” she said.

Among the extreme events, she noted record-breaking wildfires in the West in the past two years, including in Colorado, where blazes recently damaged or destroyed nearly 350 homes and killed two people.

Last spring was the warmest in the Unites States since 1895, when records were first kept. For only the third time since hurricane records started in 1851, two hurricanes formed over the North Atlantic before the season officially began June 1.
Someone forgot about the global bit in global warming . . .

Image

Roy Spencer, Ph.D. | June 2012 U.S. Temperatures: Not That Remarkable

Pielke | Comments on "This summer is what global warming looks like"
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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An apparently high quality tree ring climate reconstruction to 138BC, from Scandinavia.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 092606.htm

Image
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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Taboo wrote:An apparently high quality tree ring climate reconstruction to 138BC, from Scandinavia.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 092606.htm

Image
Regardless of the result, I still have my reservations about tree rings as a proxy measurement for temperature.

I would think that the main determinants of tree [ring] growth would be the availability of 1/ water; 2/ nutrients; and 3/sunlight

and that the correlation of the two with temperature is either complex or marginal.

re: Liebig's law of the minimum
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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The online presentation at the European Geosciences Union meeting is worth a read.
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/busin ... ought.html
Scorching heat and the worst drought in nearly a half-century are threatening to send food prices up, spooking consumers and leading to worries about global food costs.

On Wednesday, the government said it expected the record-breaking weather to drive up the price for groceries next year, including milk, beef, chicken and pork. The drought is now affecting 88 percent of the corn crop, a staple of processed foods and animal feed as well as the nation’s leading farm export.

The government’s forecast, based on a consumer price index for food, estimated that prices would rise 4 to 5 percent for beef next year with slightly lower increases for pork, eggs and dairy products.

The drought comes along with heat. So far, 2012 is the hottest year ever recorded in the United States, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, whose records date to 1895. That has sapped the production of corn, soybeans and other crops, afflicting poultry and livestock in turn.

It is also harming parts of the infrastructure. Highways in Texas, nuclear power plants in Illinois, runways and subway rails in Washington and the concrete, steel and sophisticated engineering that undergird the nation’s infrastructure are being taxed to worrisome degrees by heat, drought and vicious storms.

The impact of the hot and dry weather on the nation’s farmers has put new pressure on Congress to move ahead on a pending five-year farm bill. But House Republican leaders have been reluctant to act because of divisions within the party’s rank-and-file about the cost of the nearly $1 trillion bill.

The legislation includes several federal agriculture programs that farmers have come to expect, though it does not include any specific drought assistance. Several important disaster relief programs expired at the end of 2011, leaving farmers and ranchers who have lost cattle or grazing land with few options without Congressional action.

“I’ve been urging the House of Representatives to get a bill to the floor and get it voted on so they can conference with the Senate and get a farm bill passed,” said Thomas J. Vilsack, the agriculture secretary.

For now, analysts said they expected the broader economic impact of rising food prices to be modest. Americans spend just 13 percent of their household budgets on food. The falling price of gasoline — fuel and transportation costs being a major component of prices at restaurants and grocery stores — will help temper any price increases.

Analysts said there might be little effect on economic growth or overall inflation, which has been running around 2 percent a year.

But economists said consumers — particularly the poor and unemployed — would still feel the effects.

“It is one extra kick in the stomach” for low-income families, said Chris G. Christopher, senior principal economist at IHS, a consulting firm. “There’s a lot of people in this country living paycheck to paycheck. This is not a good thing for them.”

Higher food prices might also damp consumer sentiment. “Consumers are very sensitive to the price of gas and food,” said Jeet Dutta, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics. “But overall inflation will still look pretty moderate for the rest of the year.”

Economists fear a far greater impact outside of the United States because America is a major exporter of a broad variety of agricultural products. Lower production at home means less supply and higher prices abroad.

“We’re seeing the price of wheat, corn and beans go up,” said Marc Sadler, the head of the agricultural risk management team at the World Bank, noting that in other regions of the world, like Eastern Europe, yields were also falling.

“Food wheat is about bread and cookies and instant noodles. But it’s about instant noodles in Asia and Indonesia, as much as it is about what you’re going to buy in Walmart,” Mr. Sadler said.
Maybe we should start a betting pool as to just how disastrous food prices will be next year.
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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Ammianus wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/busin ... ought.html

. . .

Maybe we should start a betting pool as to just how disastrous food prices will be next year.
That betting pool already exists - the futures market.

That article does have one thing right, the greatest impact will be on the poor in countries that import many of their staples, such as corn and soybeans, from the US.

Saw a bit on the BBC how soybean prices in Indonesia have skyrocketed with associated scarcity.
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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New study shows half of the global warming in the USA is artificial
U.S. Temperature trends show a spurious doubling due to NOAA station siting problems and post measurement adjustments.
A reanalysis of U.S. surface station temperatures has been performed using the recently WMO-approved Siting Classification System devised by METEO-France’s Michel Leroy. The new siting classification more accurately characterizes the quality of the location in terms of monitoring long-term spatially representative surface temperature trends. The new analysis demonstrates that reported 1979-2008 U.S. temperature trends are spuriously doubled, with 92% of that over-estimation resulting from erroneous NOAA adjustments of well-sited stations upward. The paper is the first to use the updated siting system which addresses USHCN siting issues and data adjustments.

The new improved assessment, for the years 1979 to 2008, yields a trend of +0.155C per decade from the high quality sites, a +0.248 C per decade trend for poorly sited locations, and a trend of +0.309 C per decade after NOAA adjusts the data. This issue of station siting quality is expected to be an issue with respect to the monitoring of land surface temperature throughout the Global Historical Climate Network and in the BEST network.
Image

There is an old bit of wisdom in physics that it is both better and easier to fix a problem in hardware than it is to try to model it after the fact in software.

The NOAA post processing is a set of guesstimates: GIGO. They need to get out of their air conditioned offices and into the field more often.
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/09/scien ... in-us.html
The average temperature last month was 77.6 degrees — 3.3 degrees above the average 20th-century temperature, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported on Wednesday. July thereby dethroned July 1936, which had set the record at 77.4 degrees, the agency said.

Higher-than-average temperatures gripped much of the country last month, with the biggest departures from the 20th-century average reported across most of the Plains, in the Midwest and along the Eastern Seaboard, the agency’s report said. Virginia had its warmest July on record, with the average temperature four degrees above the norm, it added.

A hot July also contributed to the warmest 12-month period ever recorded in the United States, the statistics showed.

Climatologists at the agency noted that by the end of the month, about 63 percent of the nation was experiencing drought conditions, which contributed to the high temperatures.
I eagerly await yet another soon to be released report that will detail the flawed methodology the NOAA used to arrive at such conclusions. Also, they will either show July was actually among the coldest summers on record, or that it was actually not that bad, because there were plenty of other even more sizzling summers in the past once the historical temp recorded is "recorrected".
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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Ammianus wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/09/scien ... in-us.html
The average temperature last month was 77.6 degrees — 3.3 degrees above the average 20th-century temperature, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported on Wednesday. July thereby dethroned July 1936, which had set the record at 77.4 degrees, the agency said.

Higher-than-average temperatures gripped much of the country last month, with the biggest departures from the 20th-century average reported across most of the Plains, in the Midwest and along the Eastern Seaboard, the agency’s report said. Virginia had its warmest July on record, with the average temperature four degrees above the norm, it added.

A hot July also contributed to the warmest 12-month period ever recorded in the United States, the statistics showed.

Climatologists at the agency noted that by the end of the month, about 63 percent of the nation was experiencing drought conditions, which contributed to the high temperatures.
I eagerly await yet another soon to be released report that will detail the flawed methodology the NOAA used to arrive at such conclusions. Also, they will either show July was actually among the coldest summers on record, or that it was actually not that bad, because there were plenty of other even more sizzling summers in the past once the historical temp recorded is "recorrected".
An inconvenient result

Dear NOAA, which 1930′s were you comparing to when you say July 2012 is the record warmest?
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

Post by Ammianus »

Typhoon wrote:
Ammianus wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/09/scien ... in-us.html
The average temperature last month was 77.6 degrees — 3.3 degrees above the average 20th-century temperature, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported on Wednesday. July thereby dethroned July 1936, which had set the record at 77.4 degrees, the agency said.

Higher-than-average temperatures gripped much of the country last month, with the biggest departures from the 20th-century average reported across most of the Plains, in the Midwest and along the Eastern Seaboard, the agency’s report said. Virginia had its warmest July on record, with the average temperature four degrees above the norm, it added.

A hot July also contributed to the warmest 12-month period ever recorded in the United States, the statistics showed.

Climatologists at the agency noted that by the end of the month, about 63 percent of the nation was experiencing drought conditions, which contributed to the high temperatures.
I eagerly await yet another soon to be released report that will detail the flawed methodology the NOAA used to arrive at such conclusions. Also, they will either show July was actually among the coldest summers on record, or that it was actually not that bad, because there were plenty of other even more sizzling summers in the past once the historical temp recorded is "recorrected".
An inconvenient result

Dear NOAA, which 1930′s were you comparing to when you say July 2012 is the record warmest?

:lol: :lol: :lol: Just like clockwork, never fails to deliver!

Like almost all those rebuttals, bogged down in semantics and missing the forest for the trees.
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Re: The Anthropogenic Global Warming Controversy

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Ammianus wrote:
Typhoon wrote:
Ammianus wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/09/scien ... in-us.html
The average temperature last month was 77.6 degrees — 3.3 degrees above the average 20th-century temperature, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported on Wednesday. July thereby dethroned July 1936, which had set the record at 77.4 degrees, the agency said.

Higher-than-average temperatures gripped much of the country last month, with the biggest departures from the 20th-century average reported across most of the Plains, in the Midwest and along the Eastern Seaboard, the agency’s report said. Virginia had its warmest July on record, with the average temperature four degrees above the norm, it added.

A hot July also contributed to the warmest 12-month period ever recorded in the United States, the statistics showed.

Climatologists at the agency noted that by the end of the month, about 63 percent of the nation was experiencing drought conditions, which contributed to the high temperatures.
I eagerly await yet another soon to be released report that will detail the flawed methodology the NOAA used to arrive at such conclusions. Also, they will either show July was actually among the coldest summers on record, or that it was actually not that bad, because there were plenty of other even more sizzling summers in the past once the historical temp recorded is "recorrected".
An inconvenient result

Dear NOAA, which 1930′s were you comparing to when you say July 2012 is the record warmest?

:lol: :lol: :lol: Just like clockwork, never fails to deliver!

Like almost all those rebuttals, bogged down in semantics and missing the forest for the trees.
An assertion not backed up by evidence is worth less than zero.
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