Spengler discovers war mongering

[Typhoon]

ATOL | All-out Middle East war as good as it gets

There is no reason to expect most of the Muslim countries to go quietly into irreversible decline. All-out regional war is the likely outcome sooner or later. We might as well get on with it.

[Typhoon]

The differences between armchair would be generals and real generals is always instructive:

The Brilliant Prudence of Dwight Eisenhower

Preventive war was an invention of Hitler. Frankly, I would not even listen to anyone seriously that came and talked about such a thing.

~ President Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1953

[Ibrahim]

ATOL | All-out Middle East war as good as it gets

There is no reason to expect most of the Muslim countries to go quietly into irreversible decline. All-out regional war is the likely outcome sooner or later. We might as well get on with it.

Spengler is like some robot that leftists built in a lab to prove every single one of Edward Said's theses about Orientalism. One of the front-to-back dumbest essays he's written in a while.

[Enki]

It's true, Spengler did kind of leap out of the pages of Orientalism fully formed.

It's hilarious how the people who think Orientalism is bullshit are all perfect caricatures of the thesis of that book.

[Parodite]

It is a scenario he hopes for. Most scenarios fail though.

[Hans Bulvai]

I wonder why he never volunteers for any of these wars he so much believes in?

[HAL9000]

The differences between armchair would be generals and real generals is always instructive:

The Brilliant Prudence of Dwight Eisenhower

Preventive war was an invention of Hitler. Frankly, I would not even listen to anyone seriously that came and talked about such a thing.

~ President Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1953

[Emphasis added by HAL 9000]

Eisenhower was one of the most brilliant (and fair) people in the world. See the YouTube video about Eisenhower's speech on the Military Industrial Complex I have posted in the other thread about war.

For the record, I am NOT justifying preventive attack on Iran in this message, I am just trying to make Eisenhower's statement more complete and more precise.

But preventive war existed long before Hitler. It existed from the beginning of military history. In fact, most wars start by using arguments of "prevention".

This article is about the history of Azerbaijan. During the 1920s the Soviet Union invaded Northern Azerbaijan, with the only justification being the statement of Lenin. According to Lenin, it was impossible for the Soviet Union to survive without gaining the oil fields in Baku (the capital of Azerbaijan). This war was to prevent the failure of communism. At the time, the northern oil fields of Russia were not yet discovered, the main known or functional regional oil fields were in Baku. So this gave justification for the invasion of all of Northern Azerbaijan.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijan ... c_Republic

By March 1920, it was obvious that Soviet Russia would attack the much-needed Baku. Vladimir Lenin said that the invasion was justified by the fact that Soviet Russia could not survive without Baku oil.[26][27]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Army_i ... Azerbaijan

By early 1920, Soviet Russia desperately needed oil supplies from Baku. On March 17, 1920, Vladimir Lenin sent the following telegraph to the Revolutionary Military Council on the Caucasus Front:
We absolutely must take Baku. Direct all your efforts to this end, but it is necessary to remain strictly diplomatic in your statements and to ensure to a maximum extent a solid preparation for the local Soviet power. Same applies to Georgia, although in this case I advise you to be even more careful.[1]

-----------------------

On the other hand, have you read Thomas Powers' book "Heisenberg's War"?

http://www.amazon.com/Heisenbergs-War-S ... 306810115/

This book is about the German equivalent of the Manhattan Project, which failed not only because the resources were insufficient to complete the bomb while German industry was under so much pressure for other activities, but according to the book, also because Heisenberg deliberately slowed down the project.

But if Hitler had waited 5 more years before starting the World War II, and had Hitler allocated the resources to build nukes, then he would have been the first to gain access to such weapons, long before any nation, and history would have been different.

Now here is the alternate scenario for you: Suppose that in 1939 Hitler did not invade Poland or any European country, and suppose that he only focused on nuclear power, but suppose furthermore that the British, French and American intelligence agents had clear knowledge that Hitler really did want to conquer the world but that he was cleverly buying time by saying that he wanted peace while telling his generals and scientists to be patient until nukes are ready. In addition, suppose that Hitler secretly kidnapped or assassinated all the non-Nazi European physicists in Germany, Hungary, Italy, Denmark, etc, so that they cannot immigrate to England or to the United States to start a Manhattan project. Thus let us also assume that the British and American intelligence agents realized that only the Nazis knew how to make nukes and that there was no way of starting an allied Manhattan Project to counter the Nazi nuclear program. Then what should UK, France, and the US have done in 1939 when there was true peace in Europe? After all, politically it would have been difficult to invade Germany in such circumstances...

[Milo]

So often we hope for a bang and all we get is a series of barely audible whimpers.

[Mr. Perfect]

I wonder why he never volunteers for any of these wars he so much believes in?

The same reason Ibs and Tinker don't.

[Hoosiernorm]

The only problem with war is there is no other means of settling things. If things could be settled differently they would. It would be nice if everyone got along fabulously and never needed to go shoot their neighbors to settle a dispute but it really never happens that way.

[Ibrahim]

The only problem with war is there is no other means of settling things. If things could be settled differently they would. It would be nice if everyone got along fabulously and never needed to go shoot their neighbors to settle a dispute but it really never happens that way.

The problem with Spengler is that he actually thinks Egypt is going to invade Sudan to take their water.

[Hoosiernorm]

The only problem with war is there is no other means of settling things. If things could be settled differently they would. It would be nice if everyone got along fabulously and never needed to go shoot their neighbors to settle a dispute but it really never happens that way.

The problem with Spengler is that he actually thinks Egypt is going to invade Sudan to take their water.

He did not say invade he said a war with Sudan. They have had water disputes since 1959 that have resulted in trade disputes. There are enough farmers making a living off of that river to make it a political issue within Egypt.

[Ibrahim]

The only problem with war is there is no other means of settling things. If things could be settled differently they would. It would be nice if everyone got along fabulously and never needed to go shoot their neighbors to settle a dispute but it really never happens that way.

The problem with Spengler is that he actually thinks Egypt is going to invade Sudan to take their water.

He did not say invade he said a war with Sudan. They have had water disputes since 1959 that have resulted in trade disputes. There are enough farmers making a living off of that river to make it a political issue within Egypt.

[Hoosiernorm]

The only problem with war is there is no other means of settling things. If things could be settled differently they would. It would be nice if everyone got along fabulously and never needed to go shoot their neighbors to settle a dispute but it really never happens that way.

The problem with Spengler is that he actually thinks Egypt is going to invade Sudan to take their water.

He did not say invade he said a war with Sudan. They have had water disputes since 1959 that have resulted in trade disputes. There are enough farmers making a living off of that river to make it a political issue within Egypt.

http://www.ooskanews.com/daily-water-br ... lent_23549

[Ibrahim]

Right, and I'm sure the there will be open war any day now. Spengler said.

[Enki]

I wonder why he never volunteers for any of these wars he so much believes in?

Because he thinks he should be high up at the CIA or something. I wouldn't actually be surprised if he's on the payroll of some think tank or another that makes him feel like a super connected part of the intelligence community. He's always referring to his friends in the intelligence community.

[Ibrahim]

I wonder why he never volunteers for any of these wars he so much believes in?

Because he thinks he should be high up at the CIA or something. I wouldn't actually be surprised if he's on the payroll of some think tank or another that makes him feel like a super connected part of the intelligence community. He's always referring to his friends in the intelligence community.

Pretending to be "in the know" is one of the more transparent parts of his act. I recall him stumbling on details more than once.

Even in this essay, going on about bunker busters like he just read the wiki entry, even though senior Israeli intelligence officials have openly stated that they don't think airstrikes would even disable the Iranian nuclear program at this point, only delay it at best. But Spengo knows better than some bullshit spies and generals, and he wants to see some smoke.

[Hoosiernorm]

If there wasn't a "White Paper" floating around in the universe it wouldn't be put into print. Not everything on a "White Paper" is as important as other details but Dave has a history of citing them before anyone else does, albeit without revealing his source. Some of you guys don't know how to read a Spengler essay, I swear.

[Enki]

If people like Spengler became Star Wars geeks, I think the whole world could sleep better.

[Typhoon]

If there wasn't a "White Paper" floating around in the universe it wouldn't be put into print. Not everything on a "White Paper" is as important as other details but Dave has a history of citing them before anyone else does, albeit without revealing his source. Some of you guys don't know how to read a Spengler essay, I swear.

"White Paper"?



I do recall his prediction of war with Iran to start on Halloween . . . a number of years ago now.

Humour aside, what percentage of Spenglerman's geopolitical predictions have come to pass?

[Typhoon]

The only problem with war is there is no other means of settling things. If things could be settled differently they would. It would be nice if everyone got along fabulously and never needed to go shoot their neighbors to settle a dispute but it really never happens that way.

This is probably the great tragedy of our species,

that we have undergone rapid cultural evolution with regards to tool making yet still retain the poo-flinging tribalism of our earliest ancestors.

[Juggernaut Nihilism]

The only problem with war is there is no other means of settling things. If things could be settled differently they would. It would be nice if everyone got along fabulously and never needed to go shoot their neighbors to settle a dispute but it really never happens that way.

This is probably the great tragedy of our species,

that we have undergone rapid cultural evolution with regards to tool making yet still retain the poo-flinging tribalism of our earliest ancestors.

And it can't be changed. The tendency to elevate and identify with a certain group, and to denigrate and persecute outsiders, will always be with us. The best we can hope for is to sublimate the feeling and turn it to more constructive ends, like beating Russian ass in the space race and showing up those cheating 12-year-old Chinese girls in Olympic gymnastics. Maybe one day we'll have a "war" by seeing who can cure a particular form of cancer first. Or, if we still need to vicariously kill, maybe we can bring back warfare-by-champion and let our best people settle our differences in single combat... I would suggest a Halo deathmatch, but I'm not about to give up our sovereignty to a bunch of skinny South Korean 14-year-olds.

[monster_gardener]

The only problem with war is there is no other means of settling things. If things could be settled differently they would. It would be nice if everyone got along fabulously and never needed to go shoot their neighbors to settle a dispute but it really never happens that way.

This is probably the great tragedy of our species,

that we have undergone rapid cultural evolution with regards to tool making yet still retain the poo-flinging tribalism of our earliest ancestors.

And it can't be changed. The tendency to elevate and identify with a certain group, and to denigrate and persecute outsiders, will always be with us. The best we can hope for is to sublimate the feeling and turn it to more constructive ends, like beating Russian ass in the space race and showing up those cheating 12-year-old Chinese girls in Olympic gymnastics. Maybe one day we'll have a "war" by seeing who can cure a particular form of cancer first. Or, if we still need to vicariously kill, maybe we can bring back warfare-by-champion and let our best people settle our differences in single combat... I would suggest a Halo deathmatch, but I'm not about to give up our sovereignty to a bunch of skinny South Korean 14-year-olds.

Thank You VERY MUCH for your post.

Seconded.

It might be possible to change but I doubt that it will be.....

The best we can hope for is to sublimate the feeling and turn it to more constructive ends, like beating Russian ass in the space race

AGREED.....

So how about Lunar Colonies and Anti-Meteor squads......... The Meteor Squads will be need when the next big space rock or comet heads our way.......

And given our clumsy depraved natures it is not really safe to have just one...........

[monster_gardener]

ATOL | All-out Middle East war as good as it gets

There is no reason to expect most of the Muslim countries to go quietly into irreversible decline. All-out regional war is the likely outcome sooner or later. We might as well get on with it.

Thank You Very Much for the Thread, Typhoon.

Woe to those who long for the Day of the Lord, for the Day of the Lord is Darkness and Not Light.........

Best to assume that anything that can go wrong, will go wrong........

Syria/Iran/Hezbollah will use CBW and any spare nukes they may have gotten from the Russian Mob..... Israel will use its nukes in response.... Salted Nukes if Iz is hit by nukes or seriously by CBW or even rockets..... Uz gets hit by a EMP nuke attack: most bang for the buck... Or more....... Instant Katrina over much of Uz........ Iran/Most of the ME becomes uninhabitable if Iz uses gold salted Nukes.. Heaven help the Northern Hemisphere if cobalt is used....... Maybe the Southern Hemisphere too..........

[Typhoon]

ATOL | All-out Middle East war as good as it gets

There is no reason to expect most of the Muslim countries to go quietly into irreversible decline. All-out regional war is the likely outcome sooner or later. We might as well get on with it.

Thank You Very Much for the Thread, Typhoon.

Woe to those who long for the Day of the Lord, for the Day of the Lord is Darkness and Not Light.........

Best to assume that anything that can go wrong, will go wrong........

Syria/Iran/Hezbollah will use CBW and any spare nukes they may have gotten from the Russian Mob..... Israel will use its nukes in response.... Salted Nukes if Iz is hit by nukes or seriously by CBW or even rockets..... Uz gets hit by a EMP nuke attack: most bang for the buck... Or more....... Instant Katrina over much of Uz........ Iran/Most of the ME becomes uninhabitable if Iz uses gold salted Nukes.. Heaven help the Northern Hemisphere if cobalt is used....... Maybe the Southern Hemisphere too..........

I'd be more concerned about a meteor strike from space.