Did Iran test a nuclear bomb in North Korea?

[Alexis]

Das ist interessant!
Nachrichten und Analyse aus Deutschland

(news and analysis from Germany)

Did Iran test a nuclear bomb in North Korea in 2010?

The Sunday morning edition of Germany’s Die Welt reports that Western intelligence agencies detected two nuclear weapons tests in North Korea in 2010, and that one or both of them might have been conducted for Iran.
(...)
Rühle, who headed the German Defense Ministry’s policy planning staff during the peak of the Cold War in the 1980s, deplores the “credulousness of Western experts” who accept Iran’s protests that its nuclear program is peaceful.
(...)
But why should North Korea keep the nuclear tests secret? asks Rühle. North Korea proudly advertised its previous nuclear tests. But the North Korean tests of 2006 and 2009 used bombs with a plutonium core. The 2010 tests, according to Lars-Erik de Geer’s calculation, employed enriched uranium. North Korea might have secretly enriched uranium on a sufficient scale to produce sufficient explosive material for two test bombs. But the more likely explanation is this, Rühle concludes:

The second explanation would be that North Korea conducted a nuclear test for a foreign entity, in this case, an Iranian explosive. That would be a sensation, although not quite a surprise, to be sure. Intelligence services have observed a close degree of cooperation between North Korean and Iranian experts over a period of years for the preparation of a nuclear test, although the previous assumptions centered on the prospect of an underground nuclear test in Iranian territory.

[Alexis]

Rühle's thesis of possible 2010 Iranian test in North Korea is obviously speculative.

Still, if it was true, it would fit very well the global picture of Iranian nuclear program, and in fact make it more coherent:
- Iran is supposed to have had several thousands of centrifugating units operational for a few years now: 1,600 in activity by 2002 / 4,000 or 7,000 by 2009 according to various reports
- Even assuming complete failure at mastering the "P2" advanced design of centrifuges (performance = 5 SWU / year) and Iran having sticked with "P1" basic design (performance = 2 SWU /year), this would still amount to about 20 to 50 thousands SWU performed in Iranian enrichment plants (SWU is "separative work unit", the unit of work in uranium enrichment)
- Enriching 1 kg of uranium to military-grade level costs 227 SWU, and a nuclear bomb can be made with 7 to 21 kg of military-grade uranium, depending on the builder's technical proficiency. Meaning that material for an uranium bomb needs 1,600 to 4,800 SWU
- Even assuming large losses in productivity as a result of "Stuxnet" Israeli computer virus, even allowing for a fair amount of uranium enrichment devoted to preparing fuel for nuclear power stations, even assuming that Iranian bomb builders need 21 kg enriched uranium per bomb, the conclusion seems unescapable that Iran has already enriched uranium for at least one, probably several, possibly a fair number of nuclear bombs
Look up also: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340 ... 86,00.html (Israeli MI chief: "Iran can produce 4 bombs")

Which leaves only two possible interpretations:
- Either Iranian government is fully sincere that their one and only goal is to produce fuel for nuclear power... and they have produced a heck of a lot low enriched uranium
- Or Iranian government is less than fully sincere, they pursue both civilian and military nuclear aims... and they already have material for probably several bombs

This would obviously make it a very real possibility that they would have wanted to perform an unpublished nuclear test. North Korea has been a partner of Iran for a long time: Shahab-3, the bulk of Iranian medium-range ballistic missiles, are locally produced versions of No-Dong 1 North Korean design. The fact that this test would have been less than 1 kt TNT does not necessarily mean it was a fizzle: it could have been small by design, so as to make it harder to detect and yet get useful information to confirm engineering assumptions.

Incidentally, secret cooperation between aspiring / recent nuclear powers is nothing new:
- It's De Gaulle's 1958 return to power in France that stopped German nuclear weapon program, until then conducted under "European" disguise in secret cooperation with France and Italy (De Gaulle is supposed to have privately explained: "The bodies are not yet cold", and also: "It's a casus belli for the Russians")
- Israeli observers are said to have been present at the first French nuclear test, while France was building Dimona the Israeli nuclear weapons factory
- The Vela incident (1979) was very probably the accidental detection by US satellite of a clandestine Israeli-South African nuclear test
- Pakistan is generally assumed to have had a Chinese design as first design for a nuclear bomb
- etc...

Of course the logic of nuclear deterrence is universal, and Iran would be highly vulnerable to Israeli nuclear reprisal, if nuclear-tipped Iranian missiles struck Israeli cities. That being said, Iranian government rhetoric about puting an end to the State of Israel branded a "cancerous tumor" is understandably getting on the nerves of many an Israeli.
The short version being: "Israelis don't want to run a 10% risk to be 100% destroyed"

HOW not to run that risk, when a potential opponent already has produced fissile material for several bombs, is the relevant question.
...Israelis might choose to run the (many) risks of an attack uncoordinated with America, in the hope of destroying for many years the possibility for Iran to add on its arsenal, calculating that a country with a couple operational warheads would need to stand much quieter than a country with several dozens of them.

[AzariLoveIran]

.

Iran afraid of no one

why should Iran test in North Korea ? ?

Iran officially said, if and when Iran decides to have a Nuclear Bomb (and test it), it will say so

.

[Alexis]

Iran officially said, if and when Iran decides to have a Nuclear Bomb (and test it), it will say so

I'm not aware of any Iranian official declaration saying exactly that. Do you have a source?

Regarding the letter of Non-Proliferation Treaty, that Iran signed, it allows (article X) withdrawal from NPT on condition of respecting three-months advance notice. Therefore Iran could at any time announce withdrawal from NPT, then test a nuclear bomb three months and one day after that announcement...

[AzariLoveIran]

.

Iran officially said, if and when Iran decides to have a Nuclear Bomb (and test it), it will say so
.

I'm not aware of any Iranian official declaration saying exactly that. Do you have a source?

.

Yes,

Ali Larijani, speaker of Iranian parliament, probably the most powerful politician, hardliner, said this, heard myself on uTube clip .. will look and post

He said, Iran not afraid of anybody, if Iran decides to have nuke, will do and say so

.

Regarding the letter of Non-Proliferation Treaty, that Iran signed, it allows (article X) withdrawal from NPT on condition of respecting three-months advance notice. Therefore Iran could at any time announce withdrawal from NPT, then test a nuclear bomb three months and one day after that announcement ...

.

Nuclear Bomb is not in Iranian strategic interest

It would make things, in that space, too hot for Iran to execute what Iran has in mind

Any military confrontation sets back Iranian script for that space

Nuke for Iran would only make sense to protect Iran from another stunt like Saddam when and if the pain becomes too much for the west

In that sense, not having the actual Nuke, but be ready to have in short notice the key

Iran already passed that point

that is why, Iran giving up Nuclear Bomb does not mean much, like saying Japan or Germany or Brazil give up Nuclear Bomb

West knows this

and will not lift sanction

because lifting sanction would fast track fall of western colonialism in that space

KSA, Alieve, Persian Golf Sheiks will leave sooner

add to this Putin and China

and you will see things not as simple

.

[monster_gardener]

Rühle's thesis of possible 2010 Iranian test in North Korea is obviously speculative.

Still, if it was true, it would fit very well the global picture of Iranian nuclear program, and in fact make it more coherent:
- Iran is supposed to have had several thousands of centrifugating units operational for a few years now: 1,600 in activity by 2002 / 4,000 or 7,000 by 2009 according to various reports
- Even assuming complete failure at mastering the "P2" advanced design of centrifuges (performance = 5 SWU / year) and Iran having sticked with "P1" basic design (performance = 2 SWU /year), this would still amount to about 20 to 50 thousands SWU performed in Iranian enrichment plants (SWU is "separative work unit", the unit of work in uranium enrichment)
- Enriching 1 kg of uranium to military-grade level costs 227 SWU, and a nuclear bomb can be made with 7 to 21 kg of military-grade uranium, depending on the builder's technical proficiency. Meaning that material for an uranium bomb needs 1,600 to 4,800 SWU
- Even assuming large losses in productivity as a result of "Stuxnet" Israeli computer virus, even allowing for a fair amount of uranium enrichment devoted to preparing fuel for nuclear power stations, even assuming that Iranian bomb builders need 21 kg enriched uranium per bomb, the conclusion seems unescapable that Iran has already enriched uranium for at least one, probably several, possibly a fair number of nuclear bombs
Look up also: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340 ... 86,00.html (Israeli MI chief: "Iran can produce 4 bombs")

Which leaves only two possible interpretations:
- Either Iranian government is fully sincere that their one and only goal is to produce fuel for nuclear power... and they have produced a heck of a lot low enriched uranium
- Or Iranian government is less than fully sincere, they pursue both civilian and military nuclear aims... and they already have material for probably several bombs

This would obviously make it a very real possibility that they would have wanted to perform an unpublished nuclear test. North Korea has been a partner of Iran for a long time: Shahab-3, the bulk of Iranian medium-range ballistic missiles, are locally produced versions of No-Dong 1 North Korean design. The fact that this test would have been less than 1 kt TNT does not necessarily mean it was a fizzle: it could have been small by design, so as to make it harder to detect and yet get useful information to confirm engineering assumptions.

Incidentally, secret cooperation between aspiring / recent nuclear powers is nothing new:
- It's De Gaulle's 1958 return to power in France that stopped German nuclear weapon program, until then conducted under "European" disguise in secret cooperation with France and Italy (De Gaulle is supposed to have privately explained: "The bodies are not yet cold", and also: "It's a casus belli for the Russians")
- Israeli observers are said to have been present at the first French nuclear test, while France was building Dimona the Israeli nuclear weapons factory
- The Vela incident (1979) was very probably the accidental detection by US satellite of a clandestine Israeli-South African nuclear test
- Pakistan is generally assumed to have had a Chinese design as first design for a nuclear bomb
- etc...

Of course the logic of nuclear deterrence is universal, and Iran would be highly vulnerable to Israeli nuclear reprisal, if nuclear-tipped Iranian missiles struck Israeli cities. That being said, Iranian government rhetoric about puting an end to the State of Israel branded a "cancerous tumor" is understandably getting on the nerves of many an Israeli.
The short version being: "Israelis don't want to run a 10% risk to be 100% destroyed"

HOW not to run that risk, when a potential opponent already has produced fissile material for several bombs, is the relevant question.
...Israelis might choose to run the (many) risks of an attack uncoordinated with America, in the hope of destroying for many years the possibility for Iran to add on its arsenal, calculating that a country with a couple operational warheads would need to stand much quieter than a country with several dozens of them.

Thank you VERY MUCH for your post, Alexis.

Would not surprise me if this is true...

in the hope of destroying for many years the possibility for Iran to add on its arsenal, calculating that a country with a couple operational warheads would need to stand much quieter

IMVHO that is very dicey.........

My personal guess is that if Israel uses nukes on Iran (probably needed to do the job properly) and Iran has nukes with which to reply..... Iran probably will (I suspect if I were Persian I would be tempted to do so )...... Probably provoking a "salted" nuked reply from Israel........ VERY BAD for the ME, probably India, maybe China, possibly the Northern Hemisphere, maybe the World........... Depending on what type of "salt" (AIUI pray for gold, not cobalt) and how much..........

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salted_bomb


A big question is how much nuke damage can Israel take and remain a viable concern...... No where near as much as Iran IMVHO....... Does anybody have a good guess??.... My guess is not much....... Wouldn't necessarily have to be total destruction...... Just enough to make those who can leave (keeping a guest room ready for friends in Israel) .... Could be interesting to see if the Penguins would try to get out of decontamination work the way they try to dodge the draft ......... But not worth finding out ......
Palestinians would be doubly screwed in this situation..........

IMVHO what really needs to happen is for Iran & Israel to turn off the threats and insults & enrichment and make peace..... If the mad mullahs are really NOT into Madhi Madness, then my current favorite idea to assuage Iranian hegemonic ambitions and the Iranian IrrDental Association is for Israel & US to quit-claim Afghanistan to Iran..... Azari says it's an Iranian province..... Maybe the revolutionary guards can pacify the Tallywackers.... Paks would probably prefer Iran to India there.... Might be able to get the Chinese to help if it keeps their copper mine working.........

A quitclaim deed (sometimes erroneously referred to as a "quick-claim" deed) is a legal instrument by which the owner of a piece of real property, called the grantor, transfers his interest to a recipient, called the grantee.[1] The owner/grantor terminates (“quits”) his right and claim to the property, thereby allowing claim to transfer to the recipient/grantee.

Unlike most other property deeds, a quitclaim deed contains no title covenant and thus, offers the grantee no warranty as to the status of the property title; the grantee is entitled only to whatever interest the grantor actually possesses at the time the transfer occurs.[2] This means that the grantor does not guarantee that he actually owns the property at the time of the transfer, or if he does own it, that the title is free and clear.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quitclaim_deed

[AzariLoveIran]

.


Mossad disinformation - fooling American Joe

.

A big question is how much nuke damage can Israel take and remain a viable concern...... No where near as much as Iran IMVHO....... Does anybody have a good guess??.... My guess is not much....... Wouldn't necessarily have to be total destruction...... Just enough to make those who can leave (keeping a guest room ready for friends in Israel) ....

.

Monster,

don't bother

what threatens Israel's existence is not Iranian nuclear bombs

it is what Ashkenazim feel

if Ashkenazim comes to conclusion, at the end the whole thing will not work

he pack and leave, already happening

and that would be the end of it (unless you think Ethiopian (wannabe) Jews would make Israel)

so ,

Iran just needs to keep things boiling, that's all

and everything falls in place .. by default

that's what Natanyahoo saying

.

IMVHO what really needs to happen is for Iran & Israel to turn off the threats and insults & enrichment and make peace .....

.

very good idea

for that to happen, Israel must change boat .. get out of colonialism boat

.

If the mad mullahs are really NOT into Madhi Madness, then my current favorite idea to assuage Iranian hegemonic ambitions and the Iranian IrrDental Association is for Israel & US to quit-claim Afghanistan to Iran..... Azari says it's an Iranian province..... Maybe the revolutionary guards can pacify the Tallywackers.... Paks would probably prefer Iran to India there.... Might be able to get the Chinese to help if it keeps their copper mine working.........

.

again , good idea

look Monster

last 30 yrs, Iran, housed, fed, educated, healthcare and and and 15+ million Afghan refugy

If West wants to have a orderly and civilized Afghanistan .. a friendly to western interest and decent living for civilian population .. if west and Nato really want this .. if so, than west must support Iran effort to reestablish the "Greater Persia"

we take it


.

[Endovelico]

Iranians would be crazy not to try and build atomic weapons. A country which is regularly threatened with being bombed must do all it can to defend itself. Once it has the bomb, the threats will fade away.

[Ibrahim]

Ianrian-North Korean connections sound rather fantastical to me. The nuclear know-how would flow from nearby Pakistan and Russia (particularly ex-Soviet). A test of a working device would be public, not secret. That's the entire point of a nuclear program.

[Mr. Perfect]

Sort of like Israel's non-secret nuclear program.

[Mr. Perfect]

Actually Ibrahim it's old news.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/ ... 8Z20110514

North Korea and Iran appear to have been regularly exchanging ballistic missile technology in violation of U.N. sanctions, according to a confidential U.N. report obtained by Reuters on Saturday.

The report said the illicit technology transfers had "trans-shipment through a neighboring third country." That country was China, several diplomats told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

The report was submitted to the Security Council by a U.N. Panel of Experts, a group that monitors compliance with U.N. sanctions imposed on Pyongyang after it conducted two nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.

The U.N. sanctions included a ban on trade in nuclear and missile technology with North Korea, as well as an arms embargo. They also banned trade with a number of North Korean firms and called for asset freezes and travel bans on some North Korean individuals.

"Prohibited ballistic missile-related items are suspected to have been transferred between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) and the Islamic Republic of Iran on regular scheduled flights of Air Koryo and Iran Air," the report said.

[Mr. Perfect]

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/29/world ... siles.html

Secret American intelligence assessments have concluded that Iran has obtained a cache of advanced missiles, based on a Russian design, that are much more powerful than anything Washington has publicly conceded that Tehran has in its arsenal, diplomatic cables show.

Iran obtained 19 of the missiles from North Korea, according to a cable dated Feb. 24 of this year. The cable is a detailed, highly classified account of a meeting between top Russian officials and an American delegation led by Vann H. Van Diepen, an official with the State Department’s nonproliferation division who, as a national intelligence officer several years ago, played a crucial role in the 2007 assessment of Iran’s nuclear capacity.

The missiles could for the first time give Iran the capacity to strike at capitals in Western Europe or easily reach Moscow, and American officials warned that their advanced propulsion could speed Iran’s development of intercontinental ballistic missiles.

[Mr. Perfect]

http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2007_01-02/IranNK

North Korea has long been known to be a key supplier of missile technology to Iran. Concern about this cooperation, however, has increased in recent months as both countries have expanded their nuclear and missile programs.

Pyongyang launched a series of ballistic missiles in July 2006 and tested a nuclear device about three months later. (See ACT, November 2006.) For its part, Tehran has continued to develop both ballistic missiles and its uranium-enrichment program. It is not clear whether Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons program. (See ACT, December 2006.)

[AzariLoveIran]

.

Iranians would be crazy not to try and build atomic weapons. A country which is regularly threatened with being bombed must do all it can to defend itself. Once it has the bomb, the threats will fade away.

.

Makes sense


.

[Ibrahim]

Iranians would be crazy not to try and build atomic weapons. A country which is regularly threatened with being bombed must do all it can to defend itself. Once it has the bomb, the threats will fade away.

Worked for Pakistan. They hosted as many or more extremists as Iran, and the US paid them for decades.

[AzariLoveIran]

.

.
Iranians would be crazy not to try and build atomic weapons. A country which is regularly threatened with being bombed must do all it can to defend itself. Once it has the bomb, the threats will fade away.
.

Worked for Pakistan. They hosted as many or more extremists as Iran, and the US paid them for decades.

.

Iran, to show goodwill, will stop short of building a Nuke

but

everything will in place, not in duplicate, but in many many copies and many places

so

Iran will say to the beasts

you genuflect around with Iran, gini will be out of the bottle, and, all around the world

that is Mephisto's revenge

go figure out

.

[Mr. Perfect]

Things changed after 9-11. Learn the hard way, learn the easy way, doesn't matter to me.

[Alexis]

Iranians would be crazy not to try and build atomic weapons. A country which is regularly threatened with being bombed must do all it can to defend itself. Once it has the bomb, the threats will fade away.

Worked for Pakistan. They hosted as many or more extremists as Iran, and the US paid them for decades.

Yes, it is sound logic for a country threatened by powerful nations to get hold of nuclear weapons so as to guarantee its freedom. And yes, Pakistan proved that such guarantee is effective, and what's more, that it can be abused, no matter by the way whether a Republican or a Democrat is in the White House.

At the same time:
- France getting nuclear weapons for protection from risk of Soviet invasion, Israel getting them for protection from risk of Arab invasion, and India about China, and Pakistan about India, etc., etc. ... all had a common point. None of them while preparing its nuclear deterrent was threatening another country with "collapse", branding it a "cancerous tumor" nor calling for partial ethnic cleansing of its population. Yet that is precisely what Iranian officials have been doing re: the State of Israel. By partial ethnic cleansing I mean the forced removal of the part of Israeli Jewish population whose ancestors were living in Europe: that's what the supreme Iranian leader Ali Khamenei has been advocating
- France, Israel, India, Pakistan, etc. while preparing their respective nuclear deterrents were not openly brazing about plans to extend their hegemony far from their borders, up to lands concentrating the majority of world's oil reserves, that is up to a position that would yield a commanding role over the world's economy

Since the beginning of the nuclear age, ten countries have built nuclear deterrents (including South Africa which later dismantled it) To my knowledge, this is the first time that such a situation occurs of a "nuclear aspiring" nation behaving in this way.

In this regard, we are in unchartered territory.

[monster_gardener]

.


Mossad disinformation - fooling American Joe

.

A big question is how much nuke damage can Israel take and remain a viable concern...... No where near as much as Iran IMVHO....... Does anybody have a good guess??.... My guess is not much....... Wouldn't necessarily have to be total destruction...... Just enough to make those who can leave (keeping a guest room ready for friends in Israel) ....

.

Monster,

don't bother

what threatens Israel's existence is not Iranian nuclear bombs

it is what Ashkenazim feel

if Ashkenazim comes to conclusion, at the end the whole thing will not work

he pack and leave, already happening

and that would be the end of it (unless you think Ethiopian (wannabe) Jews would make Israel)

so ,

Iran just needs to keep things boiling, that's all

and everything falls in place .. by default

that's what Natanyahoo saying

.

IMVHO what really needs to happen is for Iran & Israel to turn off the threats and insults & enrichment and make peace .....

.

very good idea

for that to happen, Israel must change boat .. get out of colonialism boat

.

If the mad mullahs are really NOT into Madhi Madness, then my current favorite idea to assuage Iranian hegemonic ambitions and the Iranian IrrDental Association is for Israel & US to quit-claim Afghanistan to Iran..... Azari says it's an Iranian province..... Maybe the revolutionary guards can pacify the Tallywackers.... Paks would probably prefer Iran to India there.... Might be able to get the Chinese to help if it keeps their copper mine working.........

.

again , good idea

look Monster

last 30 yrs, Iran, housed, fed, educated, healthcare and and and 15+ million Afghan refugy

If West wants to have a orderly and civilized Afghanistan .. a friendly to western interest and decent living for civilian population .. if west and Nato really want this .. if so, than west must support Iran effort to reestablish the "Greater Persia"

we take it


.

Thank you VERY MUCH for your post, Azari.

If West wants to have a orderly and civilized Afghanistan .. a friendly to western interest and decent living for civilian population .. if west and Nato really want this .. if so, than west must support Iran effort to reestablish the "Greater Persia"

we take it

Wonderful!

I plan to call the White House and suggest to President Obama that quit claiming Afghanistan be part of peace negotiations between Iran, Israel & US.....

Pray........ I am not high on the telephone pole oops I mean Totem pole..........

IMVHO this situation is so dangerous that my main concern is stopping a nuke war.
As I have said before, as long as the Afgahns & "guests" do not launch attacks on the West & friends (Israel & India for example) if the Afghans want to be prosperous or continue their tribal ways/warfare is up to them and their mentor which presumably should be Iran.......

At least US and Israel should not be meddling there per the proposed agreement........

last 30 yrs, Iran, housed, fed, educated, healthcare and and and 15+ million Afghan refugy

To your honor & credit...... Hopefully it may make re-integrating Afghanistan back into Persia oops I mean Iran easier.....
But remember the difference between a man and a dog........ Hopefully your Afghans are hounds

.

IMVHO what really needs to happen is for Iran & Israel to turn off the threats and insults & enrichment and make peace .....

.

very good idea

for that to happen, Israel must change boat .. get out of colonialism boat

That may be possible if the Palestinians cooperate: no more missiles or terrorist attacks. Especially out of Gaza.

I want to be an optimist. Sharon pulled out of Gaza and left the Palestinians to their own devices which unfortunately included making rockets . If the Palestinians quit attacking Israel, I would like to the Israelis ease up a lot. Rational Israelis know like Sharon knew that Gaza was not worth the trouble or demographics.........

Likewise IMVHO the West Bank though there are going to have to be adjustments........ The Wailing Wall is NOT going to leave Israeli control without big problems...

I would like to see Gaza become the Hong Kong of the Mediterranean: demilitarized but a prosperous. Make the West Bank Macao touristy with Casinos.........

Make it a 3 state solution.... Israel, Hong Gaza and the West Macao.....

But as an American, I don't have much influence over this ........

Not even the Israelis have that much influence.........

It's up to the Palestinians whether they want to be prosperous or devout Jihadis..........

what threatens Israel's existence is not Iranian nuclear bombs

Maybe. So you say but nukes & similar are what worries me..........

And IMVHO what would worry me even more if I were living in Israel.......

And nukes are part of this:

it is what Ashkenazim feel

if Ashkenazim comes to conclusion, at the end the whole thing will not work

he pack and leave, already happening

......

so ,

Iran just needs to keep things boiling, that's all[/b]

That is a big danger, Azari. Sometimes a boiling pot boils over explosively....... the cook can get badly scalded.

We US and the Soviets came VERY close to destroying the Northern Hemisphere several times during the so-called Cold War.....

LOTS of Hot Spots that almost boiled over: Cuba, that satellite launch, that drunk Russian General, the real Red October submarine, KAL shoot down.... I have posted about this before.....

I think such a strategy is VERY Risky to Iran and maybe the whole world.

Stop the refinement...... Don't give Netanyahu anything he thinks he might be able to use as an excuse.........

Concentrate on assimilating Afghanistan........

By the time you do, maybe my Israeli friends will have left to escape the Penquins who AIUI don't want to fight themselves..........

Pray to G_D by whatever name you choose that this works.......

If you have any influence on your side ........... suggest it........

[Alexis]

Iran will say to the beasts

you genuflect around with Iran, gini will be out of the bottle, and, all around the world

that is Mephisto's revenge

go figure out

That is classical "deterrence-speak", the like of which has been praticed for two generations by America, Soviet Union, Britain, etc., etc., etc.
This kind of speak is not a problem.

What is problematic is threats to partially ethnically cleanse a foreign nation, open projects to get hold of majority of global oil reserves.
That kind of speak is not classical.

When such speak is uttered repeatedly and consistently by officials of a nation which at the same time prepares itself a nuclear deterrent, problems might ensue. Or not? Time will tell.

[monster_gardener]

Iranians would be crazy not to try and build atomic weapons. A country which is regularly threatened with being bombed must do all it can to defend itself. Once it has the bomb, the threats will fade away.

Thank you Very Much for your post, Endo.

Then how do you feel about Basque Separatist getting nuclear weapons?

What would the fallout of that be for the Iberian Peninsula and Europe?

I seem to remember something about the Basques getting bombed.........

What was that town......... Guerra something....... the painter......... His name?? PeaCock So and So.?

GOT IT ! ...... Guernica........ Picasso........ Ewwwww! ....... Could be Madrid after a Nuke or is Lisbon safe.....

[monster_gardener]

Iranians would be crazy not to try and build atomic weapons. A country which is regularly threatened with being bombed must do all it can to defend itself. Once it has the bomb, the threats will fade away.

Worked for Pakistan. They hosted as many or more extremists as Iran, and the US paid them for decades.

Yes, it is sound logic for a country threatened by powerful nations to get hold of nuclear weapons so as to guarantee its freedom. And yes, Pakistan proved that such guarantee is effective, and what's more, that it can be abused, no matter by the way whether a Republican or a Democrat is in the White House.

At the same time:
- France getting nuclear weapons for protection from risk of Soviet invasion, Israel getting them for protection from risk of Arab invasion, and India about China, and Pakistan about India, etc., etc. ... all had a common point. None of them while preparing its nuclear deterrent was threatening another country with "collapse", branding it a "cancerous tumor" nor calling for partial ethnic cleansing of its population. Yet that is precisely what Iranian officials have been doing re: the State of Israel. By partial ethnic cleansing I mean the forced removal of the part of Israeli Jewish population whose ancestors were living in Europe: that's what the supreme Iranian leader Ali Khamenei has been advocating
- France, Israel, India, Pakistan, etc. while preparing their respective nuclear deterrents were not openly brazing about plans to extend their hegemony far from their borders, up to lands concentrating the majority of world's oil reserves, that is up to a position that would yield a commanding role over the world's economy

Since the beginning of the nuclear age, ten countries have built nuclear deterrents (including South Africa which later dismantled it) To my knowledge, this is the first time that such a situation occurs of a "nuclear aspiring" nation behaving in this way.

In this regard, we are in unchartered territory.

Thank you VERY MUCH again for your posts, Alexis.

Excellent post............

In this regard, we are in unchartered territory.

Seconded...

[Ibrahim]

Iranians would be crazy not to try and build atomic weapons. A country which is regularly threatened with being bombed must do all it can to defend itself. Once it has the bomb, the threats will fade away.

Worked for Pakistan. They hosted as many or more extremists as Iran, and the US paid them for decades.

Yes, it is sound logic for a country threatened by powerful nations to get hold of nuclear weapons so as to guarantee its freedom. And yes, Pakistan proved that such guarantee is effective, and what's more, that it can be abused, no matter by the way whether a Republican or a Democrat is in the White House.

At the same time:
- France getting nuclear weapons for protection from risk of Soviet invasion, Israel getting them for protection from risk of Arab invasion, and India about China, and Pakistan about India, etc., etc. ... all had a common point.

Pakistan (being smaller and less powerful than archrival India) and Israel (it's nuclear arsenal an "open secret" as a favor to Washington, but known to all) needed nuclear arms to compensate for being smaller, threatened states. India needed nuclear arms to offset China and Pakistan, France really only built them as a status thing, which was very French of them.

But in all cases the point of the weaponry is letting people know you have it. So I don't think Iran would have held a nuclear test in North Korea and made it a secret. Nor are the scientists they have working on the project North Korean (as far as we know).

None of them while preparing its nuclear deterrent was threatening another country with "collapse", branding it a "cancerous tumor" nor calling for partial ethnic cleansing of its population.

Well that is the problem, isn't it. Do you preemptively attack a country that says threatening things for domestic consumption? Ethnic cleansing has been a major theme in the region since 1948, sadly.

- France, Israel, India, Pakistan, etc. while preparing their respective nuclear deterrents were not openly brazing about plans to extend their hegemony far from their borders, up to lands concentrating the majority of world's oil reserves, that is up to a position that would yield a commanding role over the world's economy

I've never heard much serious talk of Iranian territorial expansion from anybody but Azari. I don't think this is a real issue, given the difficulties Iran would have controlling anything they tried to take.

Since the beginning of the nuclear age, ten countries have built nuclear deterrents (including South Africa which later dismantled it) To my knowledge, this is the first time that such a situation occurs of a "nuclear aspiring" nation behaving in this way.

Internal rhetoric in India and Pakistan when they both completed their nuclear weapons programs was probably on the same level.

[AzariLoveIran]

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Things changed after 9-11. Learn the hard way, learn the easy way, doesn't matter to me.
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3 in 5 Americans believe 9/11 inside Job .. 7 in 8 wordwide believe 9/11 inside Job

yes,

cuts both way "Learn the hard way, learn the easy way, doesn't matter to me."

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[Endovelico]

Iranians would be crazy not to try and build atomic weapons. A country which is regularly threatened with being bombed must do all it can to defend itself. Once it has the bomb, the threats will fade away.

Thank you Very Much for your post, Endo.

Then how do you feel about Basque Separatist getting nuclear weapons?

What would the fallout of that be for the Iberian Peninsula and Europe?

I seem to remember something about the Basques getting bombed.........

What was that town......... Guerra something....... the painter......... His name?? PeaCock So and So.?

GOT IT ! ...... Guernica........ Picasso........ Ewwwww! ....... Could be Madrid after a Nuke or is Lisbon safe.....