I think it will be interesting to see which of conventional polling vs prediction markets will be proven to be more accurate in predicting the outcome of POTUS 2024
Typhoon wrote: ↑15 Oct 2024 06:53
I think it will be interesting to see which of conventional polling vs prediction markets will be proven to be more accurate in predicting the outcome of POTUS 2024
Typhoon wrote: ↑15 Oct 2024 06:53
I think it will be interesting to see which of conventional polling vs prediction markets will be proven to be more accurate in predicting the outcome of POTUS 2024
Sorry, was it supposed to be two of the same links?
Sorry, my error. The 2nd "Polymarket" link is now fixed, Thank you for bringing it to my attention.
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 16 Oct 2024 11:23
by Parodite
It seems likely that neither camp will accept defeat just like that.
One thing that has always struck me is that there seems to be no bipartisan majority to organize the election in a way that ensures the outcome is beyond reasonable doubt.
I remember voting machines were once discussed here: the proprietary technology used is not open to public scrutiny. Some IT guy working for banks mentioned that all systems used in banks are thoroughly checked inside and out, including all hardware parts and code, for possible weaknesses or hacks. The way these voting machines are accepted would be laughable for banks.
Then there’s the simple, reliable technology of paper ballots, plus the normal requirement to be a citizen with an ID. Absentee voting and voting by mail aren't high-tech conundrums either; they can be organized in a way that minimizes potential fraud.
Ben Shapiro once casually remarked that, in his opinion, states should have some autonomy in how they organize elections. It seems to me that free speech and a secure, safe, fair, and standardized election process are both the two legs the West stands on. Be a free speech fundamentalist, but if you knowingly cut off the other leg, you will lose your country and risk becoming another banana republic.
Aside from that, there is more madness deconstructing what was once the greatest nation on Earth. There's no safety valve against reckless government overspending. Warren Buffett has a good solution: any politician presiding over a government debt exceeding 3% should lose their job immediately. I'd make that part of the Constitution, with wartime being the only exception.
The big elephant in the room, once again, is the mob of bankers. They need the public’s attention forever diverted. CEOs with no skin in the game get rich by pushing other people into irresponsible levels of debt. The government is their most loyal debt junkie, with government bonds on death row.
In the meantime, it’s all about the Orange Ape, TDS, and a cackling hyena of a girl with no spine, wearing a woke Halloween costume because that’s what her overlords want.
The banana republic is already here.
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 16 Oct 2024 14:54
by Juno markII
Parodite wrote: ↑16 Oct 2024 11:23
It seems likely that neither camp will accept defeat just like that.
One thing that has always struck me is that there seems to be no bipartisan majority to organize the election in a way that ensures the outcome is beyond reasonable doubt.
I remember voting machines were once discussed here: the proprietary technology used is not open to public scrutiny. Some IT guy working for banks mentioned that all systems used in banks are thoroughly checked inside and out, including all hardware parts and code, for possible weaknesses or hacks. The way these voting machines are accepted would be laughable for banks.
Then there’s the simple, reliable technology of paper ballots, plus the normal requirement to be a citizen with an ID. Absentee voting and voting by mail aren't high-tech conundrums either; they can be organized in a way that minimizes potential fraud.
Ben Shapiro once casually remarked that, in his opinion, states should have some autonomy in how they organize elections. It seems to me that free speech and a secure, safe, fair, and standardized election process are both the two legs the West stands on. Be a free speech fundamentalist, but if you knowingly cut off the other leg, you will lose your country and risk becoming another banana republic.
Aside from that, there is more madness deconstructing what was once the greatest nation on Earth. There's no safety valve against reckless government overspending. Warren Buffett has a good solution: any politician presiding over a government debt exceeding 3% should lose their job immediately. I'd make that part of the Constitution, with wartime being the only exception.
The big elephant in the room, once again, is the mob of bankers. They need the public’s attention forever diverted. CEOs with no skin in the game get rich by pushing other people into irresponsible levels of debt. The government is their most loyal debt junkie, with government bonds on death row.
In the meantime, it’s all about the Orange Ape, TDS, and a cackling hyena of a girl with no spine, wearing a woke Halloween costume because that’s what her overlords want.
The banana republic is already here.
If you include a wartime exception, you incentivize war. Government should be forbidden, with the death penalty, from spending a dime more than is in the Treasury free and clear of any claims. If it's so important, raise the funds and pay for it. Deficit spending is taxation without representation, and utterly unfair to the next generation.
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 17 Oct 2024 01:44
by Doc
Typhoon wrote: ↑15 Oct 2024 06:53
I think it will be interesting to see which of conventional polling vs prediction markets will be proven to be more accurate in predicting the outcome of POTUS 2024
I haven't seen it this year but "the States poll" poll on Twitter was by far the most accurate poll in 2016. He got all but Colorado correct as I recall. As far as I could tell it was done by a retired guy. He did his predictions in the congressional district level.
The problem with polls is it is extremely hard to determine who is going to turn out for the election. The different in turn out can easily be larger than the presumed margin of error. Who turns out this election will determine who wins.
Typhoon wrote: ↑15 Oct 2024 06:53
I think it will be interesting to see which of conventional polling vs prediction markets will be proven to be more accurate in predicting the outcome of POTUS 2024
I haven't seen it this year but "the States poll" poll on Twitter was by far the most accurate poll in 2016. He got all but Colorado correct as I recall. As far as I could tell it was done by a retired guy. He did his predictions in the congressional district level.
The problem with polls is it is extremely hard to determine who is going to turn out for the election. The different in turn out can easily be larger than the presumed margin of error. Who turns out this election will determine who wins.
I think that you're right about election day turnout.
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 17 Oct 2024 08:31
by Parodite
Juno markII wrote: ↑16 Oct 2024 14:54]
If you include a wartime exception, you incentivize war. Government should be forbidden, with the death penalty, from spending a dime more than is in the Treasury free and clear of any claims. If it's so important, raise the funds and pay for it. Deficit spending is taxation without representation, and utterly unfair to the next generation.
I guess if war is incentivized that way, we are back at the problem of donors/sponsors that buy politicians. Military Industrial Complex, Blackrock et-al.
Bribery / legalised bribery, loopholes, favors etc. I read Cackela Harris received a billion to market herself in these last stretches of her campaign. Boggles the mind, but very fitting for a Bananistan.
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 19 Oct 2024 08:11
by NapLajoieOnSteroids
Who knows?
The panic of the Harris campaign and Democratic Party appears to portend of a bad night up and down the ticket.
At the same time, I've a very hard time imagining anything has, can, or will happen to change attitudes and opinions on Donald Trump at this point.
Everyone is so deeply dug in and we get to that about 48% barrier* that he's just not able to clear.
Then again, the Democratic Party has clearly alienated a lot of men across the spectrum, no matter the race and creed. That they are sending Barack out there to scold black men and holding panels on talk shows about how pathologize the male sex is the sort of crack-up I'd expect in an absolute rout.
The flip side being how motivated the female vote for the Democratic Party is; who actually fills out ballots in certain demographics; getting random men to the polls (outside white males) is just not a strategy one can count on.
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 19 Oct 2024 21:57
by Nonc Hilaire
The Dems are reported to be doing their ‘Good Bye Tours’ and looking for landing spots when Trump and his military/City of London backers are inaugerated.
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 20 Oct 2024 03:32
by Typhoon
Nonc Hilaire wrote: ↑19 Oct 2024 21:57
The Dems are reported to be doing their ‘Good Bye Tours’ and looking for landing spots when Trump and his military/City of London backers are inaugurated.
The City [the financial district of London, UK] can only dream of having such influence.
If it was currently 1894, you might have a point.
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 20 Oct 2024 05:00
by Nonc Hilaire
Typhoon wrote: ↑20 Oct 2024 03:32
[quote="Nonc Hilaire" post_id=279 time=<a href="tel:1729375038">1729375038</a> user_id=66]
The Dems are reported to be doing their ‘Good Bye Tours’ and looking for landing spots when Trump and his military/City of London backers are inaugurated.
The City [the financial district of London, UK] can only dream of having such influence.
If it was currently 1894, you might have a point.
[/quote]
Nonc Hilaire wrote: ↑19 Oct 2024 21:57
The Dems are reported to be doing their ‘Good Bye Tours’ and looking for landing spots when Trump and his military/City of London backers are inaugurated.
The City [the financial district of London, UK] can only dream of having such influence.
If it was currently 1894, you might have a point.
Just my opinion. Trump will have full military authority under the Law of War Manual (if he does not already) and will come in as the US Combatant Commander. I can’t see the powers that put Trump in this position not fully utilizing that power after Nov 5.
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 22 Oct 2024 07:36
by NapLajoieOnSteroids
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 27 Oct 2024 15:36
by Parodite
Probably a plus for Trump, thanks to Joe Rogan. The part where JR mentioned Trumps style of talking as "weaving" (but eventually getting back to the question asked) I thought was enlightening because it is apt.
To me it also explains why Trump is often so tiresome to listen to and never effective in countering hoaxes and falsehoods dumped in his head for years now.
Sometimes better not go on a weaving detour and just say something is false with the truth captured in a nutshell and mention a link on his website where these lies are exposed and hoaxes debunked in depth. Let Ben Shapiro do the debunking on those webpages and promote them on his daily wire channel.
Sounds easy but hey, it's Trump, the hard to read mad dog intuitive Trump who scares the right amount of hell out of his mad dog halloween opponents and their puppetmasters. Even the nuclear armed mad dogs in China, Russia and Iran suddenly start to listen.
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 27 Oct 2024 21:50
by Nonc Hilaire
It’s not weaving - it’s called patter.
Salesmen and magicians use this technique to distract and dominate.
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 30 Oct 2024 20:36
by Doc
Nonc Hilaire wrote: ↑27 Oct 2024 21:50
It’s not weaving - it’s called patter.
Salesmen and magicians use this technique to distract and dominate.
Trump is a promoter among other things. He has the establishment against him including the MSM. So the other way they can't just ignoring is by him saying "outrageous" things. Then the MSM can make outrageous statements about Trump saying "outrageous" things. Though that message that "Trump said outrageous thing" doesn't always play out the way the MSM thinks it will.
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 04 Nov 2024 10:33
by Parodite
To Sam Harris Trumpkin is too dangerous to vote for no matter what.
According to Dr. Phil the reason many people find Trump too hard to swallow, also een IQ bomb like Sam Harris, is that they are humor-blind (tm), can't look beyond appearances, have difficulty understanding crazy stuff, tend to take words literally and therefor can't read somebody like Trump accurately. SH appears to be on the autism spectrum: high definition on the quantum level but at a loss with general relativity and scared to death by Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. An unpredictable ape like Trump becomes undigestible.
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 04 Nov 2024 17:17
by Doc
Parodite wrote: ↑04 Nov 2024 10:33
To Sam Harris Trumpkin is too dangerous to vote for no matter what.
According to Dr. Phil the reason many people find Trump too hard to swallow, also een IQ bomb like Sam Harris, is that they are humor-blind (tm), can't look beyond appearances, have difficulty understanding crazy stuff, tend to take words literally and therefor can't read somebody like Trump accurately. SH appears to be on the autism spectrum: high definition on the quantum level but at a loss with general relativity and scared to death by Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. An unpredictable ape like Trump becomes undigestible.
What it really means is many people read the headlines and that's it. The propagandists are well away of this and take advantage.
. . . and it over, all but for the wailing, gnashing of teeth, and rending of cloth, as Trump is elected as the 47th POTUS.
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 06 Nov 2024 20:12
by NapLajoieOnSteroids
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 06 Nov 2024 21:00
by NapLajoieOnSteroids
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 06 Nov 2024 21:13
by Nonc Hilaire
UNOFFICIAL BANKER WAR RACE RESULTS
WIN - Templar Knights of Malta SPQR (Trump riding RWB Union Jack)
PLACE - House Rothschild (Jacob riding Red Dragon)
SHOW - House Rockefeller (Schwab riding B&W Swastika)
. . . and it over, all but for the wailing, gnashing of teeth, and rending of cloth, as Trump is elected as the 47th POTUS.
Trump also won the popular vote, the first time a Republicrat candidate has done so since 1988 [or so I've read].
The Republicrats win the US Senate and may win the US House of Representatives.
The Demsheviks have self-immolated.
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 07 Nov 2024 00:03
by Typhoon
Re: Here we go again | POTUS Election 2024
Posted: 07 Nov 2024 04:19
by Nonc Hilaire
Such BS.
Harris clearly never tried to win and was a stooge for Trump. She helped Trump win. Never even took him to task when he obviously faked his own attempted assassination.
This election was an indictment of vapid fear mongering Democrats. Not racist sexist xenophobic Republicans. Democrats could have dropped the get Trump stuff and he would have not had a chance to get elected POTUS again
Trump SWEEPS ALL Battleground States Delivers NIGHTMARE Scenario for Dems
